Gas Market
With market fundamentals largely unchanged on Tuesday, NBP curve movements were muted. Donald Trump’s August 1st deadline continues to hang over markets, with prices awaiting direction depending on the outcome of talks. Meanwhile, European storage levels continue to edge up, currently sitting at 65.4% full, 17.7% lower than this time last year. Despite spending much of the session above the 80.00p mark, the front month contract closed at 79.79p per therm, a gain of just 0.16p day-on-day, but still down over 18p month-on-month. Further along the near curve, the September 25 contract closed in negative territory, having shed 0.02p to settle at 82.46p per therm. Prompt activity was similarly mixed. While the Within day contract shed 0.50p per therm, the Day ahead contract gained 0.45p to close at 81.20p per therm on the ongoing maintenance outage at Troll.
Power Market
Movement across the GB Baseload curve was mixed on Tuesday, following a similar trend observed on the NBP market. While August 25 gained £0.55/MWh to close at £73.00/MWh, the September 25 contract fell by £0.28/MWh to settle at £78.23/MWh. On the prompt, the Day ahead contract remained stable, edging up by just £0.08/MWh, while the Weekend contract was supported by a downward revision to wind generation levels.
European carbon prices fell back on Tuesday, driven by aggressive selling activity. Spot EUA Allowances closed at their lowest level so far this month, shedding €0.65 day-on-day to close at €68.59 a tonne.
Oil Market
Oil prices settled in negative territory for a third consecutive session on Tuesday as Trump’s tariff deadline loomed over markets. U.S. President Donald Trump has set an August 1st deadline for countries to secure a trade deal or face steep tariffs, with the European Union (EU) being threatened with a 30% tariff on imports if no deal is reached. However, hopes faded for a deal between two yesterday, with the EU exploring possible counter measures against the U.S. The front month Brent contract shed 62 cents day-on-day to close at $68.59 a barrel. Meanwhile, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) front month contract posted a 64 cent decline to finish the day at $65.31 a barrel.
Markets This Morning
NBP forward products have opened in positive territory this morning. The August 25 contract is back above 80.00p, having last gone through at 81.15p, a gain of 1.36p on yesterday’s close. Norwegian flows are expected to increase from tomorrow as the Troll field is set to return to full capacity following a planned outage. The ramp up in flows should help to mitigate gains on the Day ahead contract. Crude oil prices remain stable today following improved global trade sentiment due to U.S. tariff deal with Japan. The front month Brent contract last went through at $68.49, a fall of 10 cents day-on-day.
