NBP Gas futures moved marginally higher following four days of decline

Gas Market

NBP gas futures traded sideways on Tuesday, settling marginally higher than Monday’s assessment. The Q1-26 contract closed 0.32p/th higher, while the front-season Summer-26 contract settled at 74.69p/th, up 0.19p/th. Unseasonably warm weather continued to pressure prompt prices lower, contributing to overall weakness along the curve in recent days. Despite the mild temperatures, supply into GB remains robust, resulting in elevated exports via the Interconnector to Europe. However, these high export levels were insufficient to offset the decline in domestic heating demand, leaving the system over 19mcm long for much of the session. As a result, the spot contract fell to 62.35p/th, while the day-ahead contract settled 7.05p lower at 63.60p/th

Power Market

The oscillating gas market was mirrored in GB baseload power trading, with most contracts moving higher on Tuesday. The Summer-26 contract rose by £0.47 to £70.73/MWh, though weakness in UKA carbon prices weighed on the wider power curve. The day-ahead contract fell by 9%, pressured by a soft prompt gas market and higher-than-expected temperatures that suppressed demand. Carbon prices moved higher on Tuesday buoyed by an expected increase in demand. Wind speeds are forecast to be lower next week increasing the demand for thermal power, and as a result the EUAs required to offset power plant emissions. The Dec-25 contract gained 48 cents settling at €80.64/tonne.

Oil Market

Oil prices strengthened on Tuesday following newly imposed U.S. sanctions on Russian crude, though lingering concerns over oversupply limited gains. The sanctions have disrupted exports and prompted Lukoil to declare force majeure at an Iraqi field. This move and the sanctions in general have heightened concerns for tighter global crude flows despite elevated inventories. Traders noted that the measures lent support to prices even as OPEC+ plans to raise output targets by 137,000 barrels per day in December. The group’s continued production increases have tempered the upside from U.S. sanctions amid expectations of a market surplus in 2026. Brent crude settled at $65.16/bbl, up $1.10 on the day.

Markets this morning

Mild temperatures are expected to peak today before declining by around 10 degrees over the next week. The anticipated rise in demand has lifted NBP gas prices in early trading this morning, with the Summer-26 contract last trading at 75.40p/th, up 0.71p/th. The day-ahead contract also rebounded to levels seen earlier in the week, last trading at 68.25p/th for a gain of 4.65p. Crude oil prices, meanwhile, have eased this morning as oversupply concerns once again came into focus. In other news, the International Energy Agency’s annual World Energy Outlook, released today, projects that oil and gas demand could continue to grow until 2050.