Gas Market
NBP gas prices softened on Wednesday as milder weather revisions and strong Norwegian supply weighed on the market, with further pressure emerging after reports that the Trump administration and Russian officials have drawn up a new peace proposal for Ukraine. Losses extended along the curve, with the NBP front-month Dec-25 contract falling 2.22p to 81.28p/therm. While the prospect of a ceasefire and an eventual easing of Russian sanctions added to bearish sentiment, the proposed deal which would require Ukraine to cede territory and accept limits on Western weapons and support, is unlikely to be acceptable to either Kyiv or the EU in its current form. On the prompt, NBP day-ahead declined by 1.10p to 82.10p/therm after updated forecasts showed the current cold spell ending this week, with temperatures rebounding sharply by Monday, while robust LNG arrivals into Europe added to the bearish backdrop.
Power Market
GB baseload power prices followed gas lower on Wednesday, with losses extending along the forward curve. The front-month Dec-25 contract fell £2.18 to £82.75/MWh as the market reacted to the prospect of progress in Ukraine peace talks. On the prompt, day-ahead power jumped 8.6% to £90.40/MWh on colder conditions, while an upward revision to temperatures from Monday drove a 7.2% drop in the weekend contract to £80.50/MWh.
European carbon prices also eased, despite weekly positioning data showing investment funds had built a record net long of 101.85 Mt, with total longs reaching 132.7 Mt. The expiry of November options added some afternoon volatility, but the front-December EUA still ended the session 0.7% lower at €80.66/t.
Oil Market
Oil prices retreated on Wednesday as reports suggested Washington is renewing its push to end Russia’s war in Ukraine and has drafted a settlement framework. Front-month Brent crude futures fell $1.38, or 2.1%, to settle at $63.51/bbl. According to the reports, the U.S. has signalled to Kyiv that Ukraine would need to accept a U.S.-drafted plan requiring it to cede territory and reduce the size of its military. While the prospect of a ceasefire could eventually enable higher Russian oil exports and exacerbate oversupply concerns, the EU has responded to the deal proposal saying that any actionable plan must have the input and support of both Ukraine and the EU. This comes despite U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, announced last month with a Nov 21st deadline for counterparties to wind down business, which have already reduced Moscow’s oil revenues and are expected to limit its long-term export capacity. Limiting the downside for crude, the latest EIA data showed a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories last week, driven by higher refinery runs and stronger exports.
Markets this morning
Energy markets are rangebound this morning as participants await the outcome of the latest Ukraine peace proposal drafted by the U.S. and Russia. Near-curve NBP contracts are down an average of 0.15p/therm, while prompt activity is muted, with day-ahead edging 0.40p higher to 82.50p/therm on increased gas-for-power demand. Oil prices have rebounded after yesterday’s losses, as a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles offsets shaky but improving prospects of a ceasefire in Ukraine. Front-month Brent last traded 72c higher at $64.23/bbl.
20 November 2025
