Gas Market
NBP gas prices fell to fresh 18-month lows on Friday as the US-led Ukraine peace push continued to weigh on market sentiment. The front-month Dec contract shed 2.95p to close at 78.56p/therm, down 3.83p on the week, while Summer-26 settled at 71.25p/therm, a weekly loss of 3.55p. The heightened prospect of a ceasefire and a future easing of Russian sanctions is driving this bearish tone, despite disagreements over the more contentious points of the 28-point plan presented to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week. Bearish sentiment around the talks fed through to the prompt in spite of tighter fundamentals. European gas demand jumped 24% last week amid the winter’s first cold spell and lower wind speeds, but higher withdrawals from storage and the highest level of daily LNG send-out this year, supported by a steady flow of US cargoes, ensured the system remained balanced. EU gas storage fell to 79.10% by the end of last week.
Power Market
GB baseload power prices moved lower on Friday, following the bearish tone in NBP gas and carbon markets. The front-month contract slipped £1.58 to £81.70/MWh, with similar declines seen further along the curve. Softer weather forecasts for the coming week added to the pressure on prompt prices; the day-ahead contract fell 21.1% to £86/MWh.
Energy markets more broadly weakened into the weekend, dragging carbon lower as well. The Dec-25 ICE EUA contract fell 1.17% on the day to close at €80.41/tonne, leaving prices slightly down on the week. This came against the backdrop of an otherwise largely upward trend through November, supported by record net-long positions held by investment funds.
Oil Market
Oil prices fell around 1% on Friday as renewed US efforts to secure a Russia-Ukraine peace deal weighed on the market. Front-month Brent dropped 82 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $62.56/bbl, while US WTI crude slipped 94 cents to $58.06/bbl. Both benchmarks ended the week down about 3%, their lowest settlements in a month. Sentiment turned increasingly bearish as Washington pushed a peace proposal that, if agreed, could eventually boost global oil supply by paving the way for a rollback of sanctions on Russia. Russia was the world’s second-largest crude producer after the US in 2024 and could add materially to export volumes if restrictions were eased. For now, however, there is still considerable distance between the parties; President Zelenskyy warned on Friday that Ukraine risked either losing its dignity and freedom, or US support, over the deal. In economic news, U.S. factory activity slowed to a four-month low in November as higher prices because of tariffs on imports restrained demand and a stronger US Dollar weighed on oil prices.
Markets this morning
Energy markets are weaker this morning following reports of further progress in efforts to end the war in Ukraine after talks in Geneva. NBP near-curve contracts are down an average of 2.12p/therm after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a “tremendous” amount of progress had been made in talks between Ukraine and the US on revising the 28-point plan originally drafted by Washington and Moscow. It remains unclear what amendments will be made on contentious issues such as Putin’s demand for legal recognition of occupied territories, or whether Russia will accept any changes to the proposal. Oil prices have also moved lower, with the front-month Brent contract down 52c this morning at $62.04/bbl as the market waits for the next round of headlines from the Ukraine negotiations.
24 November 2025
