A late-session selloff pushed prices to their intraday lows just before the close, as the possibility of a peace deal continued to weigh on the market.

Gas Market

Activity on the NBP gas market on Wednesday mirrored the pattern seen on Tuesday, with prices opening cautiously and posting minor losses across the curve. The front-month December-25 contract fluctuated between gains and losses for much of the session as the market balanced forecasts of colder weather against the possibility of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. The contract reached a high of 77.19p/th before a late downturn saw it trade at 75.95p/th just ahead of the close. The late-session weakness was reflected across the NBP, with all contracts touching their intraday lows before settling only slightly higher. At settlement, every contract out to Summer-27 recorded losses, as the market continues to post fresh 18- to 21-month lows on an almost daily basis, driven by ample LNG supply and the ongoing prospects of a peace deal.

Power Market

The December-25 baseload power contract continued to trend in the opposite direction to the NBP gas market on Wednesday. Prices remained supported by the delayed return of the Heysham 1 nuclear reactor and expectations of colder weather in December. Further along the curve, baseload contracts declined in line with losses across the NBP gas and UKA carbon markets. Forecasts for elevated wind generation through to at least Sunday saw the day-ahead contract fall by 29%, settling at £75.00/MWh. EUAs recorded minor losses as the latest data indicated that financial investors had reduced some of their long positions, although carbon markets continue to show limited correlation with the wider energy complex.

Oil Market

Crude oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, recovering slightly from the one-month lows recorded on Tuesday as the market awaited further clarity on the proposed Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The front-month Brent contract gained just 65 cents on the day, settling at $63.18/bbl. Any breakthrough in the peace negotiations is expected to prompt a swift rollback of Western sanctions on Russian energy exports, potentially adding significant volumes to the market and deepening the anticipated supply surplus for 2026. Expectations that OPEC+ will maintain current output levels at its meeting this weekend are also feeding into the oversupply outlook. Trading volumes are likely to be muted ahead of the weekend, with the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday today.

Markets this morning

NBP gas prices remain weak, with early trading seeing contracts open lower once again. The Summer-26 contract is now trading below 70p for the third consecutive day, with the last trade at 68.45p/th and current bids and offers indicating further downside potential. Market sentiment continues to be influenced by the looming Russia–Ukraine peace deal, where the absence of a strong public pushback from either side is viewed cautiously as supportive, though not guaranteed. Crude oil remains largely unchanged, with muted trading ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, as markets await further clarity on the peace negotiations and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting.