Gas Market
NBP gas prices extended their recent losses on Thursday, with mild weather continuing to weigh on demand forecasts. The front-month January contract fell 3.31p to settle at 70.03p/therm, while the Summer-26 contract declined by 2.16p to a new 22-month low of 64.57p/therm. Temperatures in the UK are forecast to rise sharply over the weekend and are currently expected to be around 4.6°C above seasonal norms on Monday, pushing demand lower. Day-ahead demand is accordingly projected to fall by 40mcm to 152mcm. The NBP day-ahead contract dropped 4.40p to close at 68.10p/therm, pressured by ample LNG supply and reduced gas-for-power demand, which contributed to a looser system.
Power Market
GB baseload power futures moved lower on Thursday, tracking weakness along the NBP gas curve. The front-month January contract led the declines, settling £2.10 lower at £79.05/MWh, while losses further along the curve were more muted. On the prompt, the day-ahead contract slipped 3.89% to £79.05/MWh, pressured by forecasts for wind generation to rise to around 15% above seasonal norms next week and by warmer temperatures reducing gas-for-power demand.
European carbon prices bucked the broader bearish tone, snapping a three-day losing streak. The benchmark Dec-25 EUA contract settled at €82.43/tonne, up 75c on the day, as the market broke free in the afternoon from the gravitational pull of next week’s major options expiry, despite concurrent losses in gas and power markets.
Oil Market
Oil prices firmed on Thursday as expectations of imminent interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and a weaker dollar lifted sentiment. Brent crude settled 59 cents higher, up 0.94%, at $63.26/bbl. U.S. crude futures briefly gained more than $1/bbl intraday, tracking a rally in global equities as markets bet that looser U.S. monetary policy would support economic growth and oil demand. A softer dollar added further support, making crude cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. At the same time, the perception that progress on a Ukraine peace plan is stalling helped underpin prices, after Trump’s representatives reported no breakthrough in talks with the Kremlin on ending the conflict and restoring Russian oil flows. In the physical market, Saudi Arabia set its January official selling price for Arab Light to Asia at $0.60/bbl above the Oman/Dubai average, the lowest premium in five years, signalling an increasingly competitive environment in key Asian markets.
Markets this morning
Prices are broadly flat across the energy complex this morning. NBP near-curve contracts are up around 0.25p/therm, while Summer-26 is marginally lower, down 0.12p at 65.45p/therm; activity on the prompt is muted for now, though strong LNG send-out and robust wind generation are expected to pressure prices as the session develops. Brent crude is trading steady but is on track for a small weekly gain, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, escalating U.S.–Venezuela tensions and stalled Moscow peace talks, set against concerns over looming oversupply in 2026.
05 December 2025
