Movement was mixed across the NBP curve on Monday, with the mornings’ gains easing off in the afternoon to give way to losses by the close.

Gas Market

Movement was mixed across the NBP curve on Monday, with the mornings’ gains easing off in the afternoon to give way to losses by the close. Ongoing Ukraine peace talks, coupled with a healthy supply outlook continued to weigh on prices, with the front month contract falling by 0.42p while the February 26 contract shed 1.04p by the close. A packed LNG arrivals schedule for this week added to the near curve downside. Despite showing a deficit for much of the session, the Within day contract shrugged off a tightly balanced system to settle at 67.65p per therm, down 1.25p day-on-day. With gas for power demand and domestic demand levels expected to ease from today on bearish weather fundamentals, the Day ahead contract also shed value, falling by 0.15p to close at 66.78p per therm.

Power Market

Despite an upward revision to wind output for the rest of the week, as well as well above-average temperatures forecast for the same period, the GB Baseload Day ahead contract increased on Monday. The upward pressure filtered into the front month contract, which ended the session at a £0.47/MWh premium to its previous close. Further out however, losses exhibited on the NBP gas curve fed into downside across the baseload near months. The Q1 26 contract fell by £0.18/MWh day-on-day to settle at £75.23/MWh. European carbon prices edged higher on Monday, shrugging off the ongoing weakness of gas and power prices. European Allowances for Dec 25 increased by €0.17 day-on-day to close at €81.92 a barrel.

Oil Market

Crude oil prices fell on Monday as ongoing talks to end the war in Ukraine outweighed support from expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut this week. With hopes for peace in Ukraine growing as talks continue to progress, albeit slowly, markets were tentative to the possibility of increased Russian oil exports in the near future. Adding to the downside was news that production had been restored at an Iraqi oilfield that accounts for 0.5% of world oil supply. Meanwhile, losses were mitigated by expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a quarter-point at its meeting between today and tomorrow. The front month Brent contract fell by $1.26 day-on-day to settle at $62.49 a barrel. The WTI contract for January delivery shed a similar $1.20 to close out the session at $58.88 a barrel.

Markets this morning

NBP prompt and curve products have opened firmer this morning. The front month contract last went through at 71.79p per therm, a gain of 1.26p on yesterdays close, but down from its intra-day high of 72.41p per therm.  UKCS flows have been impacted by minor maintenance outages today, putting the GB system under pressure. Maintenance at the Barrow North facility has been extended to Christmas Eve, although its impact is expected to be limited considering the ongoing weak demand and robust LNG arrivals schedule. Yesterdays’ crude oil losses have continued into this morning, albeit to a lesser extent. The front month Brent contract last went through at $62.35 a barrel, down just 14 cents day-on-day.