Following Wednesday’s losses on the NBP curve, prices recovered somewhat in yesterday’s session, though the gains were modest.

Gas Market

Following Wednesday’s losses on the NBP curve, prices recovered somewhat in yesterday’s session, though the gains were modest. Market fundamentals were largely unchanged day-on-day, with Ukraine peace talks ongoing and supply conditions remaining strong. As a result, the front month contract settled just 0.76p higher day-on-day to close at 70.46p per therm. Further out, market direction was flat with Winter 26 increasing by a modest 0.37p to settle at 69.43p per therm. Increased gas for power demand driven by lower wind output supported the prompt market, while a downwards revision in temperature forecasts added further upward pressure. The Day ahead contract increased by 0.72p to close out the session at 68.35p per therm.

Power Market

Downward wind forecast revisions supported the GB baseload prompt market on Thursday. The Day ahead contract increased by 15.2% day-on-day to settle at £80.55/MWh. Near curve contracts also moved north, driven by gains on the NBP gas curve. The front month contract increased by £0.93/MWh day-on-day to close at £80.53/MWh. Further out, the gains were more modest, with Winter 26 posting a £0.38/MWh premium to its previous close. European carbon prices continued to trend upwards on Thursday, with gas and power gains as well as the expiry of the December options contract providing support. Dec 25 European Allowances increased by €1.38 day-on-day to close at a fresh 11-month high of €83.95 a tonne.

Oil Market

Crude oil prices fell on Thursday as the market shifted its focus back to the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. While potential fall-out from a U.S. seizure of a sanctioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela remained in sight, prices instead took direction from what were deemed positive developments from Steve Witkoffs visit to Moscow this week. Further downside was added by the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s report that pointed to large surpluses in U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories. With little to support the market, the front month Brent contract declined by 93 cents by the close to settle at $61.28 a barrel, its lowest close in almost 8 weeks. The January 26 WTI contract shed similar value to finish out the day at $57.60 a barrel.

Markets this morning

NBP curve contracts are once again trading in positive territory this morning, with the front month contract last going through at a 1.14p premium to its previous close. A revised forecast suggesting a colder than normal end to the year is providing some moderate upside, although the supply outlook remains stable. The GB system is currently operating at a deficit this morning, while renewable generation is expected to be limited today. Crude oil markets are flat today with supply concerns and the potential for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal remaining in focus. The front month Brent contract last went through at $61.25 a barrel, a 3-cent decline on yesterday’s close.