Gas Market
NBP gas prices moved higher on Friday, supported by stalling peace talks in Ukraine and reports that LNG cargoes are beginning to divert away from Europe as regional prices softened. Shipping data suggest that three LNG vessels are scheduled to dock at Dutch terminals between 13 and 26 December, four fewer than over the same period in 2024. The front-month contract settled at 73.24p/therm, up 2.78p on the day, while Summer-26 gained 1.96p to 65.22p/therm. On the prompt, prices firmed into the end of the week on cooler weather forecasts and softer renewable output, with the day-ahead contract settling 2.50p higher at 70.85p/therm. EU gas storage stands at 69.61%, compared with 78.76% at the same point last year. Despite lower storage levels and reduced LNG arrivals over the next two weeks, the longer-term outlook remains bearish, driven by expectations that global LNG supply will continue to rise as new liquefaction capacity comes online and existing facilities expand.
Power Market
GB baseload power futures tracked gas higher, with the front-month Jan-26 contract settling up £1.30 on the day at £81.83/MWh, leaving it £2.95 higher on the week, a gain of 3.7%. Prompt power moved in the opposite direction, pressured by stronger wind generation forecasts over the weekend, as the day-ahead contract fell 5.63% to £75.50/MWh. In Ireland, the CRU published its Large Energy User connection policy decision paper, confirming that new data centres will be required to deliver additional renewable and dispatchable generation to alleviate system strain from rapid demand growth.
EU carbon prices ended the week 2.2% higher, despite modest losses on Friday as traders engaged in steady profit-taking ahead of the Dec-25 futures expiry. The Dec-25 contract slipped 25c on the day to €83.68/tonne.
Oil Market
Oil prices ended Friday lower, capping a weak week as oversupply concerns and optimism around a potential Russia–Ukraine peace deal continued to weigh on sentiment. The front-month Brent contract settled 16 cents down on Friday’s session at $61.12/bbl or around 4% over the course of the week. On Wednesday, the U.S. confirmed the seizure of a sanctioned oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast, with President Donald Trump signalling further interceptions of vessels carrying Venezuelan crude. The move had little impact on prices, with traders pointing to ample global supply. Bearish sentiment was reinforced by International Energy Agency forecasts published on Thursday, which show global oil supply exceeding demand by 3.84 million barrels per day next year, close to 4% of global consumption. With surplus risks firmly in focus, the market continued to trade bearishly into the close.
Markets this morning
NBP gas prices have eased this morning, with the system opening around 8 mcm/d long as steady LNG sendout continues to outweigh higher gas-for-power demand linked to softer wind output. Near-curve NBP contracts are down an average of 0.85p/therm, while prompt activity has remained muted so far. Gas-for-power demand is forecast to rise by 19 mcm/d to 69 mcm/d on the day ahead as temperatures cool. Oil prices are little changed this morning, with supply risks tied to escalating U.S.–Venezuela tensions offset by persistent oversupply concerns and the potential impact of a Russia–Ukraine peace deal. Brent was last traded at $61.21/bbl, up 9c.
15 December 2025
