A healthy supply outlook persuaded NBP curve contracts to edge down on Monday following three consecutive days of gains.

Gas Market

A healthy supply outlook persuaded NBP curve contracts to edge down on Monday following three consecutive days of gains. Following a brief spell of withdrawals during the first week of December, storage injections picked back up, with fullness levels currently sitting at a robust 66.89%. The LNG outlook is also ample, with five cargoes scheduled to arrive into the UK by the end of this week. With market fundamentals otherwise stable, the front month contract shed 1.70p by the close to settle at 73.19p per therm. The prompt market was also weaker on the day, with milder-than-expected temperatures and reduced industrial demand pushing the Day ahead contract down by 2.95p day-on-day. Meanwhile, a surplus on the GB system drove the Spot market lower, with the Within day contract closing at 70.20p per therm having declined by 2.60p.

Power Market

The front month GB Baseload contract chased its NBP counterpart lower on Monday, with the January contract shedding £1.40/MWh day-on-day to settle at £84.13/MWh. Further along the curve, losses were more subdued with the Q2 26 contract posting a £0.13/MWh loss to close at 69.80/MWh. The Day ahead contract traded sideways, as high wind levels forecasted for today, coupled with seasonal norm temperatures, kept a cap on gains. European carbon prices edged higher on Monday, despite light trade activity. European Allowances for Dec 26 increased by €0.55 day-on-day to close at €87.77 a tonne. Meanwhile, UK Allowances were similarly firm, with the Dec 26 contract gaining £0.93 a tonne by the close.

Oil Market

Rising geopolitical tensions and supply risks supported crude oil markets on Monday. Concerns over potential global supply disruptions intensified after the U.S. Coast Guard attempted to intercept another oil tanker in international waters near Venezuela over the weekend, pushing the front month Brent contract up $1.60 day-on-day. The move followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of a blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. Additional support came from ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as peace talks continue to make limited progress. However, expectations of a potential supply glut in 2026 persist, given rising output from the U.S. and the OPEC+ group, which continued to mitigate gains.

Markets this morning

Yesterday’s losses on the NBP gas market extended into this morning. The front month contract was last traded at 72.05p per therm, a decrease of 1.14p on its previous close. Healthy supply fundamentals and mild weather forecasts continue to ease supply concerns heading into 2026. While trading activity is subdued further along the curve, the prompt market is yet to get off the mark. As seen yesterday, the GB system is again oversupplied, which is likely to continue weighing on the Spot market. Oil markets are broadly flat day-on-day, with ongoing geopolitical tensions providing underlying support. The front month Brent contract last went through at $62.14 a barrel, a 7-cent day-on-day gain.