Gas Market
Christmas Eve saw NBP curve prices edge marginally higher, if largely sideways, during the truncated trading session. Thin liquidity at the start of the holiday period allowed prices to firm slightly despite generally weak underlying fundamentals. The Q1-26 contract settled at 71.73p/th, up 0.88p/th on the day, while further along the curve the Summer-26 contract gained 0.76p to settle at 65.56p/th. Gains on the prompt were more pronounced, with the combination of low wind and limited solar output lending support to gas prices. The day-ahead contract for delivery on 29 December rose by 3.30p/th, as forecast temperatures in line with seasonal norms are expected to underpin heating demand at a time when gas-fired power generation demand is also forecast to remain elevated.
Power Market
Minor gains on the NBP near curve provided some support to GB baseload power prices on Christmas Eve, in what was otherwise a largely flat market. The Q1-26 contract was assessed at £79.90/MWh, posting a modest day-on-day increase of 13p, while gains further along the curve were similarly subdued. The Summer-26 contract settled at £70.63/MWh, up £0.53 on the day. On the prompt, gains were more pronounced, with the day-ahead contract rising by 19%. In line with strength seen on the NBP prompt, the power market was supported by forecasts of below seasonal wind generation alongside elevated heating demand.
Oil Market
Oil markets remained open on 26 December, in contrast to most European commodity markets, with prices under renewed pressure following developments earlier in the week. On 24 December, crude edged slightly lower despite support from thin holiday trading, stronger U.S. economic data and supply risks linked to Venezuela and disruptions to flows from Russia and Kazakhstan. Those geopolitical concerns helped prices stabilise after mid-December’s sharp sell-off. By 26 December, however, sentiment turned decisively bearish as attention shifted back to the prospect of a sizeable global supply surplus in 2026, alongside cautious optimism around renewed Ukraine peace talks. The fading geopolitical premium saw crude settle sharply lower at $60.64/bbl, reinforcing expectations that rising output will outweigh demand growth in the year ahead.
Markets this morning
NBP gas prices continued higher this morning following mixed reports from the weekend meeting between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy, with several issues still to be finalised. The front-month January-26 contract last traded at 75.32p/th, up 1.34p/th from last Wednesday’s close. Further along the curve, gains were muted amid thin trading during the Christmas period, with the Summer-26 contract last assessed at 65.60p/th, up just 0.04p. Oil also rebounded after Friday’s losses, last trading at $62.43/bbl, supported by ongoing Ukraine peace talks and rising tensions in the Middle East.
29 December 2025
