The NBP gas curve made strong losses on Monday despite rising geopolitical tensions over the weekend.

Gas Market

The NBP gas curve made strong losses on Monday despite rising geopolitical tensions over the weekend. With a forecasted increase in temperatures from the middle of the month expected to cap demand levels, the front month contract opened 1.26p lower than Friday’s close and continued to trend down as the session progressed. A milder outlook across Northwestern Europe compounded the downside, with February 26 shedding 4.92p by the close. The prompt market was also weak, with high LNG send out and robust Norwegian supplies expected to offset strong temperature driven demand over the rest of this week. The Day ahead contract declined by 3.10p day-on-day to close at 75.10p per therm. The GB system was undersupplied for much of the day which hampered losses on the Spot, with Within day falling by just 0.10p to settle at 76.50p per therm.

Power Market

The GB baseload power curve was pressured down on Monday by a bearish NBP gas market. The front month contract shed £3.47/MWh to close at £80.40/MWh, while the Winter 26 contract declined by £2.70/MWh day-on-day to settle at £75.30/MWh. Forecasts for higher wind output today weighed on the prompt market, with the Day ahead contract falling by 7.7% to end the session at £104.50/MWh. European carbon prices also declined on Monday amid strong selling activity and weak gas and power markets. Dec 25 European Allowances shed just under a euro to settle at €87.30 a tonne. Meanwhile, UK Allowances for Dec 25 declined by 2.5% day-on-day to end the session at £67.24 a tonne.

Oil Market

Crude oil prices settled higher on Monday as markets assessed the impact of the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela over the weekend. Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves, however production has fallen sharply over recent decades due to poor management and reduced foreign investment following the nationalisation of its oil industry in the 2000s. Output averaged just 1% of global oil production in 2025. U.S. President Donald Trump has said he is planning to meet with U.S. oil companies later this week to discuss boosting Venezuelan oil production. This, as well as the plentiful oil supply levels elsewhere, meant that the geopolitically driven upside was limited. The front month Brent contract gained $1.01 day-on-day to settle at $61.76 a barrel.

Markets this morning

A portion of yesterday’s losses have been retraced so far this morning on the NBP curve. The front month contract last went through at 72.09p per therm, 1.25p higher than Monday’s close. Activity on the prompt is so far quiet, however forecasts for colder and less windy conditions from next week could create some upside. Crude oil prices are largely flat so far, with markets weighing up expectations of a supply glut this year against uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan oil output. The front month Brent contract last went through at $61.94 a barrel, a day-on-day gain of 18 cents.