Gas Market
An improvement to weather forecasts for next week, albeit temperatures are still expected to be just above seasonal norms, saw NBP futures return to declines on Thursday. Forecasts for increased wind generation also pressured prompt prices as the Day ahead returned a discount of over 3.00p per therm from the previous session. Wind generation had fallen below 5GW yesterday, well below the week’s average of above 15.0GW. This increased GB gas demand to compensate for lower renewables in the power stack and yesterday demand broke through the 350mcm mark but supplies still had a surplus at the end of the trading day. Near months held most of the early losses and February closed at 71.47p, down 3.02p. Contracts covering the summer months fell by 2.00p on average and the longer curve recorded declines ranging between 0.75p and 1.40p.
Power Market
The weakness in the gas markets on Thursday transferred to the baseload curve as near months fell by 1.6% on average. The front month, February, declined by £1.35/MWh to £81.65/MWh while the summer contract closed at £69.40/MWh, down £1.20/MWh. Carbon prices appear to have plateaued this year as early losses of around €1.00 per tonne were reversed through the session leaving contracts slightly higher.
Baseload for the Day ahead eased by 28.9% or £34.55/MWh yesterday as storm Goretti is expected to boost wind generation. The forecast for wind for next week also improved which pressured the prompt. Wind generation had fallen below 5GW on Wednesday, well below the week’s average of above 15.0GW.
Oil Market
Brent settled over two dollars a barrel higher on Thursday as the market weighed up developments in Venezuela and supply concerns in Iran and Iraq. The US has increased its blockade of vessels under sanctions in Venezuela while representatives from oil companies are preparing to visit the South American capital following the announcement from the Trump administration of a €2 billion oil deal earlier in the week. It is expected Chevron along with other major oil producers will boost its activities to increase output to the US. In Iraq, the government are believed to be looking at nationalising West Qurna 2, one of the world’s largest oil fields in order to try to dodge sanctions from Washington while economic protests in Iran could threaten to impact oil exports if extended.
Markets this morning
After yesterday’s strong gains, crude oil prices have steadied this morning with Brent just 15 cents higher at $62.14 a barrel. Concerns that economic protests in Iran could spread and curb oil exports continues to underpin prices this morning. Closer to home, storm Goretti has impacted travel and energy supplies in areas of southern England and NBP futures have ticked up slightly. The February contract is trading below the morning high of 72.58p per therm at 72.35p which is up 0.65p on last night’s close. Prompt prices are still showing last nights close, but a short gas system may nudge prices higher when trading gets underway.
09 January 2026
