Gas Market
Prompt prices were buoyed yesterday following multiple gas balancing notifications from the National Gas operator. These notices are sent to shippers to inform of possible balancing deficits on the following day. There appears to have been an issue mid-afternoon as LNG as send out dropped by 13% unexpectedly yesterday leaving the gas system forecast short. The Spot price added 0.65p per therm on the day, but the Day ahead and Weekend products gained 2.45p and 4.38p respectively. Near curve contracts opened firmer due to increased tensions in Iran and gains were extended through the morning. The March contract for the NBP peaked at 84.52p, almost 5.00p above the previous close, but fell back late in the session as gas futures at the Dutch TTF retreated. At the close, the March contract was 1.42p up day-on-day and settled at 81.14p. The summer contract settled at 73.39p, posting a gain just shy of a penny.
Power Market
Gains to NBP futures countered early declines to carbon yesterday and the near curve for GB baseload settled marginally lower. The March contract closed flat at £81.78/MWh while contracts covering the summer months were down £0.38/MWh on average. Forecasts for a drop off in wind generation along with gains to the NBP prompt supported the Day ahead product which added 6.4% or £5.25/MWh on Thursday.
Carbon prices fell sharply on Thursday after recent statements from the EU that it is to consider options to curb costs to large industry users. The sell off from investors left European Allowances down by an average of 4.8% or €4.08 per tonne, the largest single day decline in over two years.
Oil Market
With US discussions with Iran back on for Friday, concerns of supply disruption eased, and crude oil prices fell by 2.8% yesterday. The US has been building forces in the Middle East, and the President has been bullish with threats to use force if Iran fails to conform to his demands on a nuclear deal. The Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran sees around 20% of the world’s oil consumption pass through it and any conflict in the area will hamper the transit of oil and gas supplies to Europe. There are reports that Russia has cut oil prices to China to compensate for the lost supplies to India following recent sanctions and trade deals with America. Earlier in the week India agreed to terminate the procurement of oil from Russia as part of a trade deal with the US. The April contract for Brent settled at $67.55 a barrel last night, down $1.91.
Markets this morning
The GB gas system is showing a deficit this morning, and LNG send out remains around 13% below the levels seen yesterday morning. Supplies were expected to be tight today following the issue of balancing notices by the Gas TSO yesterday. Gas prices have not reacted with the prompt still flat while on the futures screen, the front month is 0.91p per therm up at 82.05p but is still on to post a significant decline this week having settled at 95.20p last Friday. Carbon prices opened higher but have moved below last night’s close on recent trades, with the Dec-26 contract for EUAs last exchanging at $78.00 per tonne. The crude oil markets are waiting for the outcome of the talks in Oman and Brent is 20 cents down at $67.75 a barrel.
06 February 2026
