Gas Market
NBP gas prices remained under pressure on Tuesday, with near-curve contracts extending recent losses as milder and windier weather forecasts continued to weaken short-term demand expectations. The front-month March 2026 contract fell 1.42p to settle at 71.13p/therm while day ahead contract edged down 0.6p to 72.50p/therm amid strong wind generation forecast for this week. Further along the curve, prices also eased as geopolitical risk premiums softened following comments from Iran’s foreign minister indicating progress in discussions with the United States and a willingness to de-escalate tensions. This helped ease concerns over potential disruption to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global LNG supply into Europe and Asia. Summer-26 declined 1.14p to close at 68.97p/therm, with broader curve weakness reflective on the expectation that strong LNG supply will offset lower EU gas storage levels.
Power Market
GB baseload power prices weakened on Tuesday, extending losses from the gas market as softer demand expectations and bearish weather fundamentals continued to weigh on prompt pricing. The front-month contract fell £1 to settle at £70/MWh, while the day-ahead contract declined 4.46% to £75/MWh as milder and windier conditions pressured prices.
In carbon markets, the Dec-26 EUA contract halted its recent slide, closing up 1.3% on the day at €70.08/tonne after five consecutive sessions of declines. Trading remained relatively contained within a €69–71 range, signalling lower volatility compared with recent sessions. Market participants appeared cautious ahead of the upcoming Commitment of Traders (COT) data release, which is expected to show whether speculative funds maintained most of their net long positions or if last week’s sharp selloff and heavy volumes reflected a broader liquidation across the market.
Oil Market
Oil prices fell around 2% on Tuesday, reaching a two-week low as markets reacted to signs of easing tensions between the United States and Iran. Front-month Brent settled $1.23 lower, down 1.8% on the day at $67.42/bbl, marking its weakest close since February 3rd. Pressure followed comments from Iran’s foreign minister indicating that Tehran and Washington had reached an understanding on the main guiding principles of ongoing nuclear negotiations after a second round of indirect talks in Geneva. Markets remain highly sensitive to developments in U.S.–Iran relations, as any renewed escalation raises the risk of disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Additional pressure came from diplomatic developments around Ukraine, where Ukrainian and Russian negotiators concluded the first stage of U.S.-mediated peace discussions in Geneva, with US President Trump urging both sides to move quickly towards a settlement. A potential peace agreement could ultimately pave the way for sanctions relief on Russia, allowing more Russian crude to return to global markets and easing supply concerns.
Markets This Morning
Gas prices have continued to ease this morning as milder and windier weather forecasts have reduced near term demand and strong LNG supply eased concerns over storage depletion. The front-month NBP contract is down 0.39p at 70.74p/therm, with milder conditions expected through the weekend and for the remainder of the month weighing on prices alongside a lower geopolitical risk premium. Progress in negotiations between Iran and the United States has also reduced fears of disruption to LNG supplies via the Strait of Hormuz, although Iran briefly closed the key shipping chokepoint on Tuesday for military exercises. Carbon prices initially fell by more than €1 this morning before recovering, with the Dec-26 EUA contract last trading at €70.24/t, up 16c on the day.
