Gas Market
Gas markets were relatively stable on Wednesday, with modest gains along the near curve as updated weather models pointed to a colder start to March. The front-month Mar-26 contract rose 0.42p to settle at 74.89p/therm. In contrast, the day-ahead contract declined 1.55p to 72.95p/therm, marking a new weekly low. The move reflected subdued demand amid warmer temperatures and comfortable supply conditions. Norwegian imports edged higher and LNG send-out increased slightly, supported by a heavy schedule of cargo arrivals at UK terminals. Geopolitical developments remain a key risk, with another round of Iran–US talks taking place in Geneva, leaving markets sensitive to headlines that could influence broader sentiment and LNG flows. EU gas storage also remains in focus, with stocks currently at 30.34% full and withdrawal season entering its final month.
Power Market
GB baseload near-curve contracts moved higher in line with firmer NBP gas prices, while parts of the far curve eased on earlier gas weakness. The front-month Mar-26 contract rose £1.15 to £73.45/MWh. In the prompt market, contracts were mixed; the day-ahead fell 9.28% to £69.40/MWh as higher wind output forecasts for Thursday weighed on prices, while lower expected wind generation over the weekend provided support to corresponding prompt contracts.
EU carbon prices also advanced, briefly touching €73/t, their highest level this week. The latest Commitment of Traders report showed speculative funds reduced their net long position for a fifth consecutive week, cutting holdings by 13.6 Mt to 68.6 Mt. The Dec-26 EUA contract closed at €72.58/t, up 2.7% on the day.
Oil Market
Oil markets were broadly steady on Wednesday, with geopolitical risk offsetting bearish inventory data. Front-month Brent edged 8c higher to settle at $70.85/bbl, as concerns over potential U.S.–Iran military escalation continued to underpin prices. U.S. crude inventories rose by 16 million barrels last week, significantly above the 1.5-million-barrel increase expected, driven by weaker refinery utilisation and higher imports. Despite the sizeable build, the impact on prices was limited given heightened supply-side risk in the Middle East. Brent had earlier touched its highest level since late July, while WTI reached its strongest level since early August, amid reports of U.S. military positioning in the region. Saudi Arabia is understood to have activated contingency plans to increase short-term output and exports should Iranian supply be disrupted. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is expected to consider a modest 137,000 b/d output increase for April as it moves to unwind its voluntary production restraint. Ongoing tariff uncertainty also added to the cautious tone across markets.
Markets This Morning
This morning, energy markets have opened weaker across the complex. NBP near-curve gas contracts are down an average 0.79p/therm as warmer temperatures ease demand, with a small dip in Norwegian flows and slightly lower LNG send-out offset by higher MRS injections, keeping the UK system comfortably balanced. Brent crude is trading 88c lower at $69.94/bbl as markets assess whether ongoing U.S.–Iran talks could reduce the risk of supply disruption in the Middle East. Carbon has seen the sharpest move, with the Dec-26 EUA falling €2.66 to €69.95/t amid reports that Italy has called for a freeze of the EU ETS scheme to support industrial competitiveness.
