Gas Market
NBP prices eased on Friday after touching their highest since January 2023 in the prior session, as some European nations and Japan offered to join efforts to secure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump said he had urged Netanyahu against further attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. Forward curve contracts fell as markets digested the extent of damage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, where strikes last week damaged two of 14 LNG trains. Summer-26 settled down 4.18p at 148.24p/therm, though remained over 25p higher on the week. NBP prompt and near curve contracts fell on Friday as damage assessments on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility came in lower than initially feared, with two of the 14 trains impacted. The day ahead closed down 6p at 147p/therm.
Power Market
GB baseload tracked NBP losses on Friday, with the front month contract falling £4.25 to £106.50/MWh. Summer-26 dropped £4.25 on the day but remained up £10.63 on the week at £105.75/MWh as continued concerns surrounding the Iran conflict kept prices elevated. Prompt prices came under additional pressure from higher forecast wind output for this week, with the day-ahead contract falling 11.23% to £122.50/MWh.
The Dec-26 EUA contract surged 6.3% on 20 March to settle at €67.66/tonne, as optimism in the carbon market rose markedly due to strong policy signals of support from the EU after several weeks of friction which at times suggested that EU leaders wanted to postpone or pause the EU ETS.
Oil Market
Oil prices increased on Friday, with front-month Brent settling up $3.54, or 3.26%, at $112.19 a barrel, its highest level since July 2022, as the conflict with Iran and supply disruptions drove a broad risk premium into crude markets. Brent posted a weekly gain of around 8.8% or $9.05/bbl. Iraq declared force majeure on all oilfields developed by foreign oil firms, adding a fresh supply shock to markets already rattled by the escalating U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which has seen strikes on key energy infrastructure and retaliatory attacks by Tehran on neighbouring Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait. WTI underperformed its global counterpart, settling down roughly 0.4% on the week at $98.32/bbl. The U.S. decision to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve weighed on WTI, pushing its discount to Brent to its widest in 11 years on Wednesday. The deployment of thousands of additional U.S. Marines and sailors to the region offered little comfort to markets showing no sign the conflict will abate soon.
Markets This Morning
Gas prices are trading higher this morning as Middle East tensions escalate and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains elusive. NBP Summer-26 is up 8.76p at 157p/therm after Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants on Saturday unless the Strait was fully reopened within 48 hours. Iran responded by warning it could destroy critical energy infrastructure across the Middle East, while Tehran’s Defence Council escalated further on Monday, threatening to cut all Gulf routes by laying sea mines if the U.S. follows through. Front month Brent is up 96c at $113.15/bbl. In contrast to the rest of the energy complex, carbon EUAs are down with the Dec-26 contract currently €1.2 lower this morning at €66.45/tonne.
