Gas Market
NBP prices continued to trend lower on Tuesday as the impact of Trump’s pause in attacks on Iranian power infrastructure extended into a second consecutive session, easing geopolitical risk across gas markets. Further pressure came from Trump’s comments highlighting “very good and productive conversations” aimed at bringing the conflict to an end, reinforcing expectations of reduced disruption risk. As a result, the April-26 contract fell by 6.92p to 136.35p/th, returning to levels seen a week ago. Reflecting the market’s sensitivity to shifting headlines, April-26 traded as low as 131.79p/th intraday, while Summer-26 and Winter-26 contracts tested 130.81p/th and 134.00p/th, respectively. On the prompt, prices also moved lower as a reduction in geopolitical risk premium weighed on sentiment, with the Day-Ahead contract falling to 133.50p/th. The decline was driven by strong wind generation, which outweighed cooler temperatures that offered some demand support.
Power Market
The GB baseload Day-Ahead contract plummeted on Tuesday as very high wind generation, coupled with stronger-than-normal solar output, weighed heavily on prices. The Day-Ahead contract settled at £40.50/MWh, a decline of 43% from Monday’s assessment. Curve prices also weakened as losses in the NBP gas market found their way into the power market. Prices declined further amid improving sentiment that an end to the Middle East conflict may be approaching.
EUA prices moved higher for a third consecutive session yesterday, as the market’s confidence in the stability of EU climate policy strengthened. This view is supporting prices, reflecting expectations that policymakers are unlikely to weaken or abandon the scheme, which had been a concern in recent weeks.
Oil Market
Brent crude edged lower in choppy post-settlement trading on Tuesday, retreating from earlier gains of nearly 5% as geopolitical headlines introduced fresh uncertainty around the Middle East conflict and potential diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions in Iran. Prices had initially surged amid ongoing supply disruptions tied to the conflict, particularly as flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely constrained, with Brent settling at $104.49/bbl, up $4.55. However, sentiment softened after reports emerged that Washington had proposed a framework to ease tensions, raising the possibility—however tentative—of a ceasefire. The market continues to grapple with conflicting signals, as traders weigh persistent physical supply tightness against the prospect of negotiations that could eventually alleviate disruptions, with post-settlement trading seeing Brent fall back toward $100.07/bbl.
Markets this morning
This morning
As perceived momentum towards an end to the conflict in the Middle East continues to increase, energy prices continue to track lower. NBP gas prices are on track for a third session of strong losses as the April-26 contract is currently trading at 126.48p/th, down 9.87p from Tuesday’s settlement. Further along the curve the WInter-26 contract is also falling as it trades 8.49p lower at 128.50p/th. Reports have emerged that the U.S has provided Iran with a 15-point plan to end the war, and as a result oil has fallen by $5.73 last trading at $98.77/bbl. EUA carbon is trading higher for the fourth session with the bellwether Dec-26 contract trading at €72.27/tonne, a gain of over a Euro from Tuesday’s settlement.
