Gas Market
The recent downward momentum in UK wholesale gas prices extended on Wednesday, with losses recorded across the curve. Declines were most pronounced along the near curve and prompt, while the far curve remained relatively muted. The move lower was driven by expectations that U.S.-Iran peace talks could resume in the coming days, although this remains unconfirmed. Reflecting the softer outlook, the Winter-26 contract fell to its lowest level since early March, settling at 103.89p/th, while May-26 dropped 5.08p to 103.67p/th, its lowest since late February prior to the conflict in Iran. On the prompt, the Day ahead contract followed suit, falling to 103.40p/th. Additional downside pressure came from weaker demand, as mild, windy conditions reduced gas-for-power consumption.
Power Market
UK baseload power futures fell yesterday, mirroring downward pressure on the NBP alongside easing geopolitical risk, as communications pointed to U.S.-Iran peace talks happening “very soon”. The May-26 contract shed £2.50/MWh to settle at £84.50/MWh, while Winter ’26 posted similar losses, falling £1.75/MWh to £89.25/MWh. Lower-than-usual wind generation pushed Day-Ahead Baseload power up by £5.75/MWh, settling at £82.25/MWh.
Following Tuesday’s rally, the EUA carbon market spent Wednesday consolidating its gains, trading sideways for much of the session. The Dec-26 contract slipped 42 cents to settle at €74.30/tonne, with technical selling cited as the culprit after the market failed to break through the €75 level. Conversely, the UKA Dec ’26 settled at £47.43 per tonne showing a marginal rise of £0.21 per tonne.
Oil Market
The Brent crude front month edged slightly higher as ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East offset tentative signs of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. While reports suggested Tehran may consider allowing safer passage through parts of the Strait of Hormuz if a deal is reached, flows remain significantly below normal levels weeks after the route was effectively shut, keeping a risk premium embedded in prices. The market has begun to move away from pricing a complete outage, but uneven recovery in tanker traffic and continued restrictions on Iranian exports are maintaining underlying tightness. A surprise draw in U.S. crude inventories lent additional support, though broader macro uncertainty, including policy risks in the U.S. and concerns over global growth, continues to temper the demand outlook. Brent ultimately settled marginally higher at $94.93/bbl, with WTI closing at $91.29/bbl.
Markets this morning
UK NBP gas prices are trimming some of Wednesday’s losses on Thursday morning, as the market awaits further clarity on Middle East peace talks and a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The NBP front month contract is up 1.48p at 105.15p/therm, with Winter-26 adding 1.66p to 105.55p/therm. Norwegian gas facility maintenance at Troll gas field and the receiving terminal of Kollsnes cut some 10mcm/d of gas supply through Langeled, weakening the UK balance. Brent crude is also pushing higher, with the front month last trading up $1.32 at $96.25/bbl, as scepticism over any immediate resolution to the conflict keeps a risk premium in prices.
