The carbon markets recent heavy losses were stemmed as EU ETS unit prices gained 32 cent

19 January 2021

The system remained well-supplied however and UK prompt gas prices fell lower again

Demand on the UK gas system was forecast exactly in line with the seasonal norm yesterday morning but gradually rose to 10MCM above as wind availability decreased and more gas-fired power generation was called on. The system remained well-supplied however and UK prompt gas prices fell lower again on the day. Within-day gas fell by 6.10p while the day ahead contract shed 5.45p and losses across the prompt spectrum averaged 4.62p. The front month contract fell by 4.49p and looks set for it’s sharpest week-on-week decline in 2 years. Seasonal contracts beyond the front summer saw only marginal movement but the Winter 21 contract settled below 50.00p again.  

Baseload futures tracked gas futures lower again with the front month shedding £2.55/MWh

Baseload futures tracked gas futures lower again with the front month shedding £2.55/MWh to settle below £70.00 yesterday. The baseload contract for March fell by £2.50/MWh to settle below £60.00. On the carbon market, recent heavy losses were stemmed as EU ETS unit prices gained 32 cent to settle in a range between €31.50 and €32.20 per tonne. Lower demand and stronger supply margins saw the GB day ahead baseload power price fall back below £60.00 per MWh on Monday. week ahead baseload dropped to £67.00/MWh. The week ahead contract gained £3.00 however as a forecast return to colder weather is set to drive demand higher.  

Crude oil prices eased for a second consecutive day

Crude oil prices eased for a second consecutive day with Brent settling below $55.00 for the first time in 2 weeks. The global benchmark is down by almost a dollar week-on-week and West Texas Intermediate was not traded as the U.S. markets were closed for the Martin Luther King Memorial Day. On the carbon market, recent heavy losses were stemmed as EU ETS unit prices gained 32 cent to settle in a range between €31.50 and €32.20 per tonne.  

 Milder weather prevailing across Britain and Ireland has led to lower gas demand today

Milder weather prevailing across Britain and Ireland has led to lower gas demand today. The system is currently forecast 15MCM long against demand of 306MCM. Trading on the UK gas market has been particularly slow to kick-off this morning with only the front month contract traded so far. February is up by 1.86p, recovering some of yesterday’s steep loss. Crude oil has also rebounded slightly, with Brent currently trading above $55.00 again. Carbon prices have recovered some of the recent losses with EU ETS unit prices up by almost €1.00 per tonne overnight.