Brent has continued to fall this morning

23 June 2022

The UK gas market yesterday experienced another session of volatile trading

The UK gas market yesterday experienced another session of volatile trading with wild intra-day swings. Initial gains for the remaining summer months 2022 as well as 2023 were eroded and by the end of play summer prices had retreated from earlier highs. In contrast, the intervening winter months extended gains. The front month of July saw the steepest drop, shedding 22.24p to finish at 183.62p having briefly traded at a high of 215.68p. Elsewhere on the curve, the upcoming winter gained an additional 12.41p to finish at 324.41p. The continued pressure on winter contracts partially due to Russia reducing supplies, hindering European nations from filling winter storage.

 Carbon EUAs shed an average of €2.70/ tonne yesterday

The intra-day swings witnessed in the NBP futures market was mirrored in GB baseload power futures yesterday.  The front month, July, settled £10.55/MWh down at £197.95/MWh while the winter-22 contract closed at £302.25/MWh, gaining £8.75/MWh.  Carbon EUAs shed an average of €2.70/ tonne yesterday with the spot closing at €81.43 per tonne. Wind generation is forecast to increase for the remainder of the week, but still is well below the seasonal average and baseload for the day ahead settled higher at £223.95/MWh yesterday.

 Crude oil prices slumped on opening yesterday

Crude oil prices slumped on opening yesterday as Brent traded down to a low of $107.03 a barrel before settling at $111.14 a barrel.  Investors are concerned about rising interest rates and the effect this will have on economies.  Later in the day, losses were pared back following comments from the U.S. Fed Chair, Jerome Powell to the U.S. Senate Banking committee. He said that further interest rate increases would be at the appropriate pace for the economic outlook.  Also in the U.S., President Biden called for Congress to suspend a fuel tax in order give some relief to gasoline pump prices.  West Texas Intermediate for August closed at $106.19 a barrel, down $3.33.

Near gas futures on the NBP have recovered some of the losses

Near gas futures on the NBP have recovered some of the losses recorded late on Wednesday this morning.  The July contract has traded between 185.00p and 198.07p with the latest trade being at 193.00p which is up 9.38p on last nights close. The prompt is also looking like it will open firmer as the day ahead, the only product to trade is up by 7.85p.  GB gas demand is forecast at 218MCM for today and the system is tight with maintenance works to curb flows through the Langeled line by up to 30MCM for the next two days. Brent has continued to fall this morning as the August contract is down $2.12 a barrel.
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