The NBP gas futures market oscillated between gains and losses on Thursday

17 March 2023

Gas Market

The NBP gas futures market oscillated between gains and losses on Thursday with either side failing to gain much of an advantage and by the close the market was marginally higher.  The front month April traded between 102.69p and 111.44p before settling at 109.19p, gaining 2.89p on the day.  The seasonal contracts of summer and winter added 3.74p and 4.58p respectively leaving those contracts a little above the level they were at before the gains at the end of last week.  The uncertainty was evident on the prompt market too as the spot price eased by 5.45p to 104.05p while the remaining products settled mixed but moved very little from the previous session.  

Power Market

The see-saw movement in the NBP futures market was witnessed in the GB baseload futures market too and near contracts settled higher for the most part. Near months tracked corresponding gas contracts higher towards the end of play with April adding £2.75 to close at £115.75/MWh.  Carbon prices eased on Thursday with the EUA contract for Dec-23 shedding €1.25 to close at €88.00 per tonne. Baseload for the day ahead settled slightly up at £115.59/MWh, with earlier pressure from the NBP prompt countering strong wind forecasts.  Output from wind has averaged 12.7GW for the past week but forecasts are for wind to fall below 10.0GW tomorrow.  

Oil Market

Crude oil prices reversed morning losses and ended the day higher following reports that OPEC is in talks with Russia to try calm the markets.  Crude oil prices have tanked since the start of the recent banking crisis, with Brent shedding over $9.00 a barrel this week.  The latest bank in question, Credit Suisse, was given a lifeline by the Swiss regulators which seemed to calm the markets meanwhile the U.S. Fed was also doling out assurances for the U.S. banking system being sound.  The dollar lost ground to foreign currencies which also make crude oil more expensive on exchanges.  At the close, Brent settled at $74.70, up $1.01 a barrel.  

Markets this morning

After yesterday’s uncertainty in the NBP futures market, there is a similar pattern to early trading for the near curve this morning.  April has traded between 107.47p and 114.55p, but last exchanged at 107.75p, which is 1.44p down on last night’s close.  The lesser traded summer contract is 2.32p up at 115.50p. Prompt prices are down with 2.05p off the day ahead product on last trade.  Brent is 36 cents up at $75.06 a barrel this morning.  
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