Gas Market
The NBP near curve posted modest gains on Wednesday, retracing a portion of Tuesday’s losses. Front month gains were more pronounced than the rest of the near curve, with the August 25 contract increasing by 1.35p to close at 83.67p per therm. Further heatwaves across the Continent remain a risk and could pull volumes away from storage injections into cooling, however summer demand is currently muted. European storage levels are now at 63.5% full, 17.9% lower than this time last year. Further along the curve, movement was flat, with the Winter 25 contract posting a gain of just 0.20p day-on-day. An unplanned outage at the Nyhamna processing plant lifted the prompt market, with the Day ahead contract gaining 1.95p day-on-day. The Spot market meanwhile was held up by an undersupplied system, with Within day increasing by 1.60p to settle at 82.75p per therm.
Power Market
GB baseload power contracts edged up for the most part on Wednesday, with gains driven by movements on the NBP gas curve. The front month contract increased by £1.55/MWh to end the session at £75.45/MWh. Further out, movement was more muted, with Winter 25 posting a gain of just £0.28/MWh. Prompt movements were also modest, with the Day ahead contract increasing by £0.61/MWh day-on-day to close at £85.95/MWh.
In contrast to gains across gas and power markets, European carbon allowances fell back moderately on Wednesday. December 25 Allowances shed €0.24 to close at €71.18 a tonne.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices edged down on Wednesday in a continuation of the modest losses experienced on Tuesday. Donald Trump’s August 1st deadline for trade deals loomed large across markets, with economic uncertainty weighing on contracts. As tariff wars continue, the European Commission is preparing possible retaliatory action if talks with Washington fail to secure a trade agreement for the European Union. Furthermore, oil refinery rates in the U.S. hit 94% of total capacity this week, operating at near the highest levels of the year, which helped to increase U.S. fuel inventory levels. The front month Brent contract shed just 19 cents day-on-day to close at $68.52 a barrel.
Markets This Morning
NBP near curve contracts have traded a touch above their previous close so far this morning, with the front month contract having last transacted at 83.96p per therm, up 0.29p day-on-day. Activity on the prompt is so far quiet. Although demand levels are forecast flat for tomorrow, the extension to the Nyhamna outage into Friday announced yesterday could elevate the prompt. Meanwhile, the GB system is currently showing a shortfall of 11.4 mcm/day, which could inject some support into the Within Day contract. Movement across crude oil markets is once again muted, with the front month Brent contract last going through at $68.30 a barrel, down 22 cents from Wednesday’s close.
