Gas Market
NBP gas prices were steady on Thursday as market participants weighed tariff-related uncertainty and its potential impact on broader economic conditions. The new front-month contract rose slightly by 0.51p to settle at 86.84p/th, while the Winter-25 contract edged up just 0.13p. An unplanned outage at Norway’s Karsto gas processing plant reduced flows by 13 mcm/d, with scheduled maintenance set to follow from August 2nd to 19th, further impacting 20 mcm/d of capacity. Despite the supply disruption, fundamentals remained balanced, with the Day-Ahead contract closing virtually flat at 83.53p/th, up just 0.43p, as reduced Norwegian flows were largely offset by higher forecasted wind generation, which curbed gas-for-power demand.
Power Market
GB baseload power contracts were mostly flat on Thursday, mirroring NBP gas movements, with the incumbent front-month September contract settling slightly higher at £81.55/MWh, up 0.3%. Stronger wind output, averaging 7.8GW, weighed on spot prices, pushing the Day-Ahead contract down 8.73% to £75.75/MWh. The scheduled restart of 0.6 GW at Hartlepool nuclear unit on August 4th is expected to further pressure power prices by easing gas for power demand.
In the carbon market, EUAs traded sideways for much of the session, with little price movement as market participants awaited stronger signals. The benchmark Dec-25 contract edged down 0.27% to €72.66/tonne, as analysts noted that only significant headlines are likely to move the market from its current range.
Oil Market
Oil prices fell on Thursday amid renewed economic uncertainty ahead of Trump’s August 1st tariff deadline, which weighed on the demand outlook. Brent crude for September delivery expired down 71 cents, or 0.97%, at $72.53/bbl. The U.S. has secured trade deals with two-thirds of its 18 largest partners, but lingering tensions continue to weigh on global economic sentiment. On the supply side, U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 7.7 million barrels last week to 426.7 million, driven by lower exports, according to the EIA. This contrasted with analyst expectations for a 1.3-million-barrel draw. Gasoline stocks, however, dropped by 2.7 million barrels, well above forecasts, offering some support and demonstrating robust demand during this summer driving season. Also helping limit losses is the ongoing threat of further U.S. sanctions on Russia.
Markets this morning
Markets are flat this morning, with the new NBP front-month September contract down 0.39p at 86.45p/therm. Higher wind speeds are expected to pressure prompt prices for both UK gas and power. Oil prices are little changed after falling around 1% in the previous session, as traders assessed the potential impact of newly imposed U.S. tariffs that could dampen economic activity and slow global fuel demand growth. Brent crude for October delivery is down 40 cents at $71.31/bbl. Late on Thursday, Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on U.S. imports from dozens of countries and territories, including Canada, India, and Taiwan, that failed to reach trade deals by his August 1 deadline.
