Increasing optimism for a possible meeting to discuss a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine weighed on gas and oil prices yesterday.

Gas Market

After a low-key start to the day NBP futures did edge lower gradually but not without some fluctuations on the way down on Thursday. Trump’s increased trade tariffs on India were largely shrugged off, but the market also watched for news of a potential meeting with Presidents Putin and Zelenskyy which could lead to a ceasefire between the two. At the close the front month, September, was down around a penny to 81.04p per therm while contracts covering the front winter declined by around 1.33p.  A long gas system pressured the Spot which declined by 2.00p yesterday.  Forecasts for wind generation were revised lower for Friday which could see demand pick up while cooling load may also increase from the weekend as temperatures are set to rise above the norm once more.

Power Market

A rebound in carbon prices prevented further losses to GB baseload futures yesterday.  Weakness on the NBP curve fed into the near curve as September declined by £0.22/MWh to £78.13/MWh. The Winter contract fell by the same amount to close at £84.03/MWh. Carbon EUAS and UKAs added premium yesterday after a busy afternoon of trading. European allowances for Dec-25 and Dec-25 were up by 1.4% or 98 cent per tonne. Baseload for the Day-ahead increased by 7.1% yesterday to £60.00/MWh. Wind generation is forecast to drop below recent levels while cooling demand could pick up over the weekend as temperatures in parts of the UK are forecast to get close to 30°C early next week.

Oil Market

The early gains for crude oil prices were eroded through the session on Thursday as hopes of a meeting to discuss a ceasefire between the three leaders increased.  Trump had given the Russian President a deadline of Friday to commit to an end to the war or face further sanctions. But there is very little left that the US administration can do to force Putin to come to talks so Trump would welcome the opportunity to say a meeting has been scheduled and not have to apply sanctions. The October contract for Brent continued to decline as reports emerged late in the session that Putin was open to meet with Trump but not President Zelenskyy. At the close, October was down 46 cents to $66.43 a barrel while the West Texas Intermediate contract for September settled at $63.88, down 47 cents a barrel.

Markets this morning

With news that the Russian leader is to meet with President Trump over the coming days the gas markets opened lower this morning. However, the latest trades for the front of the NBP curve have seen prices tick up above last night’s close.  The front month last exchanged at 81.34p per therm which is 0.30p up or a penny above the low of the day so far. The Winter contract has been thinly traded so far and is 0.15p higher at 89.65p.  There is also very little activity on the prompt with just the Day ahead showing so far and that contract has also added 0.30p. Brent has also reversed earlier losses with recent trades for October going through at $66.70 a barrel, up 27 cents but looks set to post its greatest weekly loss for two-months.