Gas Market
Following nearly two weeks of decline since U.S. President Trump first announced plans for his meeting with President Putin, which took place last Friday, the UK gas market has returned to the range-bound characteristics that have defined much of this summer. However, the market is now trading within a band approximately 8p lower than the range seen earlier in the season, as traders view the latest talks between global leaders positively, with hopes higher than anytime previous for a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. The September contract settled at 76.82p per therm, slightly higher than Friday’s close of 76.45p, with winter-25 closing at 84.32p close to the recent 17-month low. In other news, the Business Post reports that in a letter sent to the Irish Planning Commission in early August, Minister for Energy Darragh O’Brien confirmed that Ireland is no longer banning fracked LNG.
Power Market
GB Baseload curve contracts remained largely sideways on Tuesday, mirroring the directionless NBP as market participants await further developments in the Ukraine–Russia peace talks. On the prompt market, the Day-Ahead price closed at £77.00/MWh, down from recent highs, as stronger wind speeds across the UK boosted wind generation.
European carbon fell in trading on Tuesday as the market digested the lack of direction from the US/Ukraine talks and instead took direction from falling crude oil prices. The spot contract closed at €70.52/tonne, while the Dec-25 contract fell €0.39 to €71.32/tonne.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices fell on Tuesday as markets reacted to U.S. President Trump’s comments on plans for a trilateral summit with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky. Monday’s talks between Trump, Zelensky, and European leaders had raised optimism for a peace deal. A potential ceasefire could ease or lift existing EU sanctions on Russian oil, improving the global supply outlook. Consequently, Brent front-month fell to $65.79/bbl. Additionally it appears to the market that President Trump has also softened his stance on secondary sanctions targeting nations importing Russian oil, further reducing the risk of supply disruptions.
Markets This Morning
UK gas prices opened within their recent trading range on Wednesday, with the front-month contract last trading at 76.94p/th, slightly above Tuesday’s settlement. Further along the curve, moves were limited, with Summer-26 offered at 76.43p/th, up 0.29p. On the prompt, prices traded lower as UK demand held flat to Tuesday and the system remained well supplied despite minor North Sea outages. In oil, prices firmed after the American Petroleum Institute reported a draw in US crude inventories, with Brent front-month last trading at $66.52/bbl, recovering much of Tuesday’s losses.
