Colder Weather Drives Prompt Gas Higher as Forward NBP Curve Steadies

Gas Market

Low temperatures forecast for the rest of this week, combined with falling wind generation, continued to lift prompt prices on Monday. The within-day contract climbed 11.50p to 83.00p/therm as gas-for-power demand is expected to rise sharply in cooler conditions. Further along the curve, movements were more muted as strong LNG send-out kept the UK system comfortably supplied, capping gains. Near-curve contracts were broadly flat, with the front month edging down just 0.03p to 82.36p/therm. Further out, contracts saw modest declines; Summer-26 eased 0.47p to 74.33p/therm after news that Greece had signed a letter of intent to supply US LNG to Ukraine this winter. With Ukraine’s production and storage infrastructure heavily damaged by Russian strikes, this additional supply should ease import needs and reduce pressure on the wider European gas system over the coming winter.

Power Market

GB Baseload power prices followed a similar path to gas, with a strong increase in prompt prices brought about by lower wind generation and colder temperatures while forward contract movements were more subdued. The day ahead contract increased £7.45, or 9.06%, to £89.7/MWh while the Summer-26 contract settled unchanged at £70.75/MWh. The Dec-25 EUA contract slipped 1.25% on Monday to close at €79.92/t. Prices briefly opened firmer in line with gains in European gas and power, helped by colder and less windy weather revisions over the weekend, but quickly reversed. Selling pressure built through the session as traders absorbed an analyst report indicating the European Commission may relax emissions-intensity benchmarks for industrial plants, paving the way for higher free allocation of allowances between 2026 and 2030.

Oil Market

Oil prices eased on Monday as loadings resumed at Russia’s Novorossiysk export hub following a two-day suspension after a Ukrainian attack on the Black Sea port. Brent crude settled 19 cents, or 0.3%, lower at $64.20/bbl after trading largely flat for much of the session. While flows from Novorossiysk have restarted, markets remain focused on continued Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian oil infrastructure and the November 21st deadline for Western bans on dealings with Russian majors Lukoil and Rosneft. Sentiment is also being shaped by U.S. President Donald Trump’s pledge on Sunday to strongly pursue sanctions on countries doing business with Russia. These bullish factors that could tighten supply in the near term sit against expectations of a global surplus in 2026, with OPEC+ having agreed this month to raise December output targets by 137,000 b/d.

Markets this morning

Near-curve NBP gas prices have climbed higher this morning as UK gas and power markets open stronger, with cooler temperatures and tightening fundamentals continuing to drive short-term price moves. The front-month NBP contract is up 1.43p so far, last trading at 83.77p/therm. Prompt prices are expected to firm further through the day, supported by sharply colder weather across Northwest Europe, with UK temperatures more than 4°C below seasonal norms. Oil prices, by contrast, have softened as supply concerns eased following the resumption of loadings at a Russian export hub that was briefly halted by a Ukrainian drone and missile strike; Brent crude was last traded down 18c at $64.02/bbl.