Gas Market
The energy markets in Europe opened the week softer after reports of progress in the peace talks at the weekend. The U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said talks with Ukraine on the 28-point peace plan have gained momentum, but the details released were still minimal. Zelensky stated that it’s a critical moment for Ukraine as Trump tried to push a deadline of Thanksgiving Day for accepting the deal but there are still doubts as to whether the Ukrainian President can consider yielding territory to Moscow. Having declined by around 2.50p per therm the front month clawed back some of the losses late in session to settle just over a penny lower, but still setting a fresh 21-month low. A glut of LNG along with a higher revision to temperatures weighed on the prompt as the Day ahead product fell by 1.10p while product for the Balance of month shed 2.05p.
Power Market
Weakness on the NBP futures curve fed into the GB baseload power market yesterday. The front month, December, is due to expire this week and was pressured by the early declines on the corresponding contract for the NBP. A late kick up in carbon prices capped losses for the day as December posted a loss of £2.88/MWh. Contracts covering next summer fell by an average of £0.28/MWh. Carbon EUAs recovered from an early sell off and contracts settled an average of 21 cent per tonne higher at the close.
Forecasts for lower wind generation on Tuesday provided support for the Day ahead product yesterday. Wind generation is still expected to top 10.0GW but is a significant drop form the levels of 15.0GW seen on Monday.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices reversed early losses as the markets following hints of a possible rate cut by the U.S. Fed in December. Early reported hopes of progress in the peace deal started to fade through the session as doubts were raised over the size of the apparent gap between the two sides. Details released of the plan have been scant and it is believed that most of the deal is geared towards satisfying Putin’s wish list. However, Zelensky hasn’t rejected the proposal, and talks will continue to close the distance between the two sides. The Governor of the Federal Reserve, Christopher Walker, hinted at a possible quarter percentage point decrease in December, saying the jobs market is still looking weak. Lowering interest rates provides borrowers with more disposable income which can boost economic growth. At the close, the January contract for Brent was 81 cents up at $63.37 a barrel.
Markets this morning
Early losses to NBP futures have been pared back this morning with the front month flat at 77.55p per therm as talks to progress the peace deal are set to continue. There are reports that the U.S. led by Dan Driscoll, the Army Secretary, has held meetings with Russian representatives in Abu Dhabi yesterday and will meet again later today. President Zelensky is reported as saying last night that more work is needed for the plan to work for Ukraine. Despite the ongoing talks, both Russia and Ukraine continued to launch overnight attacks last night leading to casualties on both sides. Crude oil prices have shed some of yesterday’s gains as the January contract last exchanged at $63.11 a barrel.
25 November 2025
