A late-session selloff pushed prices to their intraday lows just before the close, as the possibility of a peace deal continued to weigh on the market.

Gas Market

The NBP gas market extended its decline on Tuesday, though prices recovered from their intra-day lows. Q1-26 traded down to 70.89p/th, a drop of 1.79p, as hopes for progress on a potential Russia–Ukraine peace agreement grew ahead of talks in Moscow between senior U.S. diplomats and President Putin. However, speaking ahead of the talks Putin signalled that Russia was prepared for war, comments that helped pare back some of the losses before settlement. As a result, Q1-26 recovered to 72.18p/th, ending the day 0.50p lower. The pattern was mirrored across the curve, with Summer-26 testing 65.53p/th before settling at 66.53p/th. Prompt prices also remained soft, with mild weather and above-seasonal temperatures expected in the short term.

Power Market

Losses on the NBP continued to pressure GB baseload power futures on Tuesday. Near-curve contracts fell by over £0.50/MWh on average, having traded lower earlier in the session before late gains on the NBP supported prices into the close. The Q3-26 baseload contract posted a modest increase, buoyed by a late rally in its corresponding gas product. Carbon contracts out to 2027 declined by an average of 99 cents per tonne, with the weak broader energy outlook weighing on sentiment. The bellwether Dec-25 EUA came under notable selling pressure as its 10 December expiry approaches. Despite the downturn, carbon prices remain largely disconnected from European gas market movements.

Oil Market

Oil prices shed all of Monday’s gains as market attention shifted firmly to the Russia–Ukraine peace talks. The Brent front month traded in negative territory for much of the session, though early losses were limited following comments from President Putin, who warned Europe that while Russia did not want a war, they were prepared for one if necessary. By the close, the February crude contract had fallen 1% to $62.45/bbl. Despite the talks reaching an impasse over territorial issues, the market remained optimistic that a deal could still be achieved — a scenario that would likely add to the forecast oversupply in 2026.

Markets this morning

NBP gas prices have continued to extend their losses in early trading this morning. The initial round of US–Russia peace talks concluded after the gas market settled on Tuesday. Comments last night signalling an impasse over territorial issues appear to have stalled progress, but this setback has failed to halt the NBP’s decline. Q1-24 outturned just above 69p/th in 2024, and Q1-26 is now approaching that level, last trading at 71.66p/th. Meanwhile, the EU has agreed to phase out Russian gas by late 2027, although this has had little immediate impact on prices. Crude oil also reacted negatively to the perceived breakdown in the peace talks, with front-month Brent last trading at $63.25/bbl.