Gas Market
Tuesdays gains were reversed and some on Wednesday as the market responded to the latest weather forecasts for mild temperatures to remain until the Christmas holidays. Ample LNG supplies have also pressured the near curve as deliveries to the UK continue to land this week. Meanwhile discussions for peace between Russia and Ukraine continue although President Zelensky ruling out yielding territory to Russia may slow negotiations. The front month for the NBP declined by 2.59p to 69.70p per therm, the lowest settlement for the contract since 04-January-2022. The Summer-26 contract closed at 64.81p, down 1.82p, and a similar declined was posted by the Winter-26 product. On the prompt, the Spot shed 2.70p as the GB gas system ran with a healthy surplus for much of the session against a subdued demand of 204mcm.
Power Market
The weakness in the gas market spilled into the GB baseload power market while a decline in Carbon prices also added to the downside yesterday. The front month, January, settled £1.35/MWh lower yesterday but the February contract posted the greatest loss of the day closing at £76.65/MWh, down £1.50/MWh. Carbon EUAs eased early in the session before recovering a touch as trading picked up ahead of the expiry of the December options. The Spot settled at €82.55/ tonne.
A reduction in wind generation forecast for Thursday propped up the Day ahead baseload product yesterday. Wind generation in the UK has averaged over 17.0GW for the last week and is expected to fall below 15.0GW. At the close, the Day ahead settled at £69.93/MWh, up £9.03/MWh.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices settled slightly higher on Wednesday after supply concerns were raised while the U.S. Fed cut the interest rate by a quarter of a percent. Reports that the U.S. seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela gave a lift to prices as concerns mount for immediate supplies, as the market already is factoring in less supplies from Iran and Russia. A tanker linked to Russian oil supplies was also reported as disabled yesterday following a drone strike from Ukraine. The third decrease to U.S. interest rates of the year was announced by the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell yesterday. As was widely expected the reduction was a quarter of a percentage point and the Mr Powell poured water on the idea of a further cut any time soon. The February contract for Brent increased by 27 cents to $62.21 a barrel.
Markets this morning
Peace talks to end the war in Ukraine was the focus of the oil markets this morning and Brent is down almost a dollar a barrel to $61.25. Leaders of the EU had a call with the U.S. President in which Trump is reported to have said after that ‘strong words’ were spoken. He also said that he could meet with President Zelensky at the weekend subject to Zelensky’s latest proposal. In the gas markets, early gains have been pared back with January down almost a penny intra-day to last trade at 70.25p per therm. Gains are currently averaging around a half a penny for near months while the Summer-26 contract is trading flat. Prompt prices have also opened higher as gas demand picks up to compensate for slightly lower wind generation today.
11 December 2025
