Gas Market
NBP gas prices extended recent losses on Monday, falling to multi-week lows as milder weather forecasts and improving LNG availability eased near-term demand concerns. The front-month contract declined 3.70p to settle at 72.55p/therm, while Summer-26 fell 2.11p to 70.11p/therm, its lowest settlement since mid-January. Prompt prices also weakened, with the day-ahead contract dropping 5.00p to 73.10p/therm as forecasts turned milder and wind output expectations increased for the week ahead. Supply conditions remain broadly comfortable despite some Norwegian flow volatility. An outage at Ormen Lange was extended by three days yesterday, with the impact rising from 5mcm/d to 12mcm/d. Meanwhile, around 25 LNG cargoes are expected into the UK and Northwest Europe over the next two weeks, easing concerns over low storage. EU gas storage currently stands at 33.54%, though strong LNG inflows mean sentiment is presently driven more by softer demand expectations than storage risks.
Power Market
GB baseload power prices weakened on Monday, tracking losses in both gas and carbon markets. The front-month contract fell £3.25 to settle at £71/MWh. Prompt prices moved sharply lower, with the Weekend contract dropping 28.16% to £56.25/MWh after wind output forecasts for the remainder of the week were revised higher by 1.1GW to 14.5GW, now slightly above seasonal norms and easing near-term system tightness.
Carbon prices declined for a fifth consecutive session, with the Dec-26 EUA contract settling 2.1% lower at €69.18/tonne. Prices initially strengthened in early trading but reversed mid-morning following weak auction results. Trading volumes have eased back towards typical levels, and the pace of decline has slowed since Thursday, suggesting downward momentum may now be moderating.
Oil Market
Oil prices edged higher on Monday as markets balanced expectations of renewed U.S.–Iran nuclear talks against the prospect of additional supply from OPEC+. Front-month Brent settled up $0.90, or 1.33%, at $68.65/bbl, while WTI did not settle due to the U.S. Presidents Day holiday. Prices found support after reports that Washington is preparing for the possibility of a sustained military campaign should negotiations fail, with a second round of talks scheduled in Geneva on Tuesday. Gains were tempered, however, by indications that OPEC+ members are leaning towards resuming output increases from April following a three-month pause, a move that could add further supply to the market and limit further upside.
Markets this morning
NBP gas prices have softened this morning, with near-curve contracts down by around 0.86p/therm on average as warmer weather forecasts reduce heating demand. Over the weekend, forecasts shifted milder and windier, with temperatures in Germany, the EU’s largest gas consumer, expected to rise slightly above seasonal norms this week, further easing demand. Carbon prices have followed a similar pattern to yesterday, initially strengthening before slipping lower, with the Dec-26 EUA contract currently down €0.12 at €69.06/tonne. Brent crude prices edged lower in Asian trading as several markets remain closed for Lunar New Year holidays, including mainland China, with front-month Brent last trading 30c lower at $68.35/bbl.
