Gas Market
NBP gas prices stabilised on Monday following last week’s volatility, with the near curve easing on steady supply fundamentals. Front-month NBP slipped 0.60p to 77.05p/therm, pressured by consistent Norwegian flows, strong LNG send-out and a heavy schedule of incoming cargoes at UK terminals. Further along the curve, contracts edged higher as geopolitical risk between the U.S. and Iran supported a modest risk premium. Seasonal Sum-27 and Win-27 recorded the strongest gains, rising 2.01p and 1.03p respectively, while other forward contracts posted smaller moves. Market sensitivity to political developments remains elevated, particularly amid frequent policy updates from President Trump, which continue to inject volatility across wider energy markets. Meanwhile, EU gas storage stands at 30.78% full, just 0.31% above the five-year low recorded during winter 2021/22, leaving the market alert to any supply disruption.
Power Market
GB baseload contracts were mixed overall; the front-month contract gained 42p to settle at £74.05/MWh. Prompt pricing was underpinned by tighter interconnection, as the UK–France link continued to operate at reduced 75% capacity following an unplanned outage extension of a further week. As a result, the day-ahead contract rose 14.81% to £77.50/MWh, despite above-average wind generation.
Carbon markets remained under pressure. Softer buying interest, milder weather forecasts and ongoing tariff debates weighed on sentiment, while renewed political criticism of the EU ETS dampened risk appetite. The benchmark Dec-26 EUA fell 3.3% to €71.38/tonne after one of the weakest auction results since the scheme’s inception triggered an aggressive sell-off
Oil Market
Oil prices edged lower on Monday, easing from a six-month high as markets positioned ahead of a third round of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks and absorbed renewed volatility tied to U.S. trade policy. Front-month Brent settled 27 cents lower, down 0.38%, at $71.49/bbl after Brent Crude had rallied 5.6% over the previous week as rising concern over potential military escalation between Washington and Tehran lifted the geopolitical risk premium. Iran has indicated it is prepared to make concessions on its nuclear programme in return for sanctions relief and recognition of its right to enrich uranium, keeping the prospect of additional supply in focus. Broader macro sentiment also weighed, with equity markets softening after the latest U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs. Over the weekend, U.S. President Trump reacted by stating he would raise a temporary tariff on imports from 10% to 15%, adding further uncertainty to the demand outlook.
Markets This Morning
This morning, NBP gas has opened softer, with near-curve contracts down an average of 1.46p/therm as milder weather and stronger wind generation reduce gas-for-power demand. UK demand is forecast at around 222mcm/d, well below seasonal norms, with temperatures running notably above the five-year average. Updated weather runs continue to signal mild and windy conditions into early March, keeping the system comfortably supplied at the open. Carbon has also eased, with the Dec-26 EUA down 22c at €71.16/tonne amid subdued buying interest. Brent Crude has edged higher, trading at $71.67/bbl, up 18c, as markets assess potential supply risks linked to U.S.–Iran tensions ahead of the next round of nuclear talks.
