Gas Market
For much of Thursday’s session, gas prices traded below Wednesday’s settlement, with milder temperature forecasts weighing on the prompt contract and pressuring the front of the curve. In its final day of trading on ICE, the March-26 contract slid to an intraday low of 72.67p/th, down 2.22p from the previous close. Weakness was evident further along the curve as well, with Summer-26 dipping to 72.4p/th amid broader bearish sentiment. The downturn proved temporary, however, as reports late in the afternoon indicated that nuclear talks in Geneva between the U.S. and Iran had stalled. The headlines triggered a sharp rebound into the close, lifting contracts across the curve into positive territory on the day. March-26 ultimately expired at 77.81p/th—more than 5p above its session low—while Summer-26 traded within a 4.6p range before settling at 76.71p/th.
Power Market
Movement along the GB baseload curve was mixed, as contracts were caught between late strength in the NBP and softer UKA carbon prices. The front seasons, Summer-26 and Winter-26, were supported by the late spike in the gas market, tracking the rebound into the close. Further out the curve, however, persistent weakness in carbon weighed on pricing, capping gains and pulling contracts lower. On the prompt, the sharp rally in the NBP lifted the day-ahead baseload contract by £4.25/MWh.
EUA carbon came under pressure after Italy’s industry minister called for a suspension of the ETS, prompting a wave of aggressive selling. The Dec-26 contract briefly traded below the €70/tonne mark during the session before recovering to settle at €70.88/tonne.
Oil Market
Front-month Brent crude edged lower to settle near $70.75/bbl on Thursday after a volatile session, as the market reacted to shifting signals from diplomatic exchanges between Washington and Tehran. Early strength, sparked by reports that negotiations had faltered over U.S. demands for zero uranium enrichment and the transfer of Iran’s higher-grade stockpiles, briefly lifted prices by more than a dollar amid fears of heightened regional tensions. However, those gains faded when both sides agreed to continue discussions into next week, easing immediate concerns about military escalation and potential supply disruptions. The fall in prices reflected the unwinding of a geopolitical risk premium rather than a material change in fundamentals. With global balances still relatively comfortable, the prospect of additional OPEC+ barrels in the coming months and steady Iranian export flows reinforced the view that the market remains adequately supplied, leaving sentiment—rather than structural tightness—to dictate price swings.
Markets This Morning
NBP gas prices have eased this morning following post-settlement updates on Thursday indicating that U.S.–Iran nuclear talks have not fully broken down and are set to continue into next week. The new front-month April-26 contract opened at 77.80p/th and last traded at 77.55p/th, just under a penny below Thursday’s close. Meanwhile, crude oil is trading around a dollar higher at $71.76/bbl, as the market continues to monitor developments in Iran, amid U.S. demands for zero uranium enrichment during yesterday’s talks. The Dec-26 carbon contract is largely unchanged, opening at €70.90/tonne.
27 February 2026
