NBP prompt and near curve prices surged on Monday amid a sharp escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend

Gas Market

NBP prompt and near curve prices surged on Monday amid a sharp escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend. Following further attacks, Qatar suspended gas production at the Ras Laffen facility, the world’s largest LNG export hub, which accounts for roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply. The U.K.’s reliance on LNG imports, combined with the recent downward pressure on the NBP from strong LNG inflows, heightened the market’s sensitivity to any threat of supply disruption. Additional concern stemmed from Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping lows were reported to be largely suspended, intensifying fears of curtailed exports. The front month contract settled at 113.79p per therm, up 44.8% on yesterday’s close and its highest settlement since January 2023. Further out along the curve however, gains were more subdued, with limited additional risk premium priced in amid expectations that the conflict may prove temporary.

Power Market

GB Baseload power curve products rose yesterday, driven by a sharp rise in gas prices across European hubs due to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. The new front month contract, April 26, gained £19.55/MWh by the close to settle at £91.00/MWh. The curve’s upside filtered into the prompt market, while below average wind levels forecast for the coming day added further support. The Day ahead contract increased by 33.2% day-on-day to close out the session at £98.00/MWh. European carbon markets downplayed the bullish upside that gripped the wider energy complex on Monday, with Dec 25 Allowances increasing by a modest €0.39 to close at €70.31 a tonne. In contrast, UK Allowances fell day-on-day with Dec 25 shedding £1.06 a tonne by the close.

Oil Market

Crude oil prices surged at the open yesterday after Israeli and U.S. airstrikes on Iran, followed by Tehran’s retaliation on Monday, sharply escalated tensions in the region. The intensifying conflict forced the shutdown of multiple oil facilities across the Middle East, including in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, while also disrupting shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz – raising serious concerns about global supply. As geopolitical risks mounted, the market’s risk premium spiked amid fears that the conflict could drag on for weeks or even month, amplifying the potential impact on the global economy. After a volatile session, the front month Brent contract settled at $77.74 a barrel, up 7.3% day-on-day, and its highest close since mid-June 2025. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for April delivery gained $4.21 by the close to finish at $71.23 a barrel.

Markets this morning

Oil and gas markets have opened starkly higher this morning as the expanding U.S.-Israel war with Iran heightened supply risks. Reports suggest that Iran is willing to target regional energy infrastructure and has claimed to have closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows. While disruption to the strait is significant, a broader Iranian campaign against Middle East energy infrastructure would pose an even greater risk, potentially leading to prolonged outages. A huge amount of uncertainty surrounds the potential duration of this conflict, which is also feeding into the upside. The front month NBP contract last went through at 157.56p per therm, a gain of 42.7% on yesterday’s close, while Brent for April delivery last went through at $83.02 a barrel.