Gas Market
NBP prices rose for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, tracking crude oil higher as the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran showed no sign of easing and prospects for near-term Strait of Hormuz reopening remained remote. Front-month April settled up 1.76p at 131.20p/therm, following a 1.65p gain on Monday. Fresh Iranian attacks on the UAE compounded supply concerns, with operations at the Shah gas field remaining suspended following an earlier drone strike and a new attack igniting a fire at Fujairah’s export terminal. Price strength has increasingly migrated into the 2027 and 2028 contracts, signalling that market participants are no longer treating the disruption as purely short-term. Win-26 closed 2.74p higher at 124.27p/therm on Tuesday, having already gained 2.49p on Monday. European gas storage remains below year-ago levels, though the deficit has narrowed materially over the past two weeks, closing from 9.49% on 28 February to 6.05%, suggesting the pace of winter drawdown has eased.
Power Market
GB baseload prices posted gains on Tuesday, tracking bullish NBP sentiment, though upside was capped by weakness in carbon. Gains were more pronounced along the curve, with Win-26 adding £0.88 to £98.25/MWh and Sum-26 up £0.38 to £96.13/MWh. Prompt contracts were supported by a weak wind forecast for Wednesday at 5.1GW, well below seasonal norms, with the day-ahead surging 24.87% to £109.95/MWh.
Dec-26 EUAs extended their steep decline on Tuesday, falling 3.4% to €66.57/tonne, as selling pressure built ahead of the 19-20 March EU leaders summit. Markets reacted to growing expectations that the European Commission may propose loosening Market Stability Reserve (MSR) parameters as part of a broader ETS reform package to be presented to leaders this week.
Oil Market
Front-month Brent crude settled up $3.21, or 3.2%, at $103.42/bbl on Tuesday, reversing Monday’s 2.8% decline, as renewed Iranian attacks on the UAE deepened concerns over global supply disruption. Iran struck UAE targets for the third time in four days, igniting a fire at the export terminal in Fujairah that halted or significantly curtailed oil loading at the port. Fujairah sits on the Gulf of Oman just outside the Strait of Hormuz and handles volumes equivalent to roughly 1% of global demand. The sustained assault has forced the UAE to cut output by more than half, compounding the supply shock already stemming from the effective closure of the strait. WTI had fallen 5.3% on Monday after some vessels briefly transited the chokepoint, with Tuesday’s price action reflecting the market’s reassessment that disruption remains far from resolved.
Markets This Morning
NBP near-curve prices are softer this morning, with front-month April down 2.83p at 128.37p/therm, tracking weakness in oil markets as the Strait of Hormuz and LNG flow disruptions remain the dominant price drivers. Losses are less pronounced further along the curve, with Summer-26 down just 0.39p at 126.30p/therm. Brent has eased marginally 22c to $103.20/bbl after crude exports resumed from Iraq’s Kirkuk fields to Turkey’s Ceyhan port, providing modest relief. Dec-26 EUAs extended Tuesday’s losses, down a further 55c to €65.80/tonne as upcoming EU talks are expected to focus on limiting carbon price volatility and mitigating its impact on electricity costs, reinforcing a preference for stability over price escalation.
