Gas Market
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East over the previous 24 hours, including attacks on energy infrastructure, drove significant volatility in gas markets on Thursday, with prices reaching their highest levels since the start of the current conflict before retreating notably in the final hours of trading. Retaliatory Iranian strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure overnight reportedly caused extensive damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG production and export facility. The attack on the largest LNG production facility in the world, drove a sharp spike in prices, with the April contract peaking at 180.00p/th while the Summer-26 contract reached a high of 169.47p/th. However, reports later in the session indicating that the damage would affect around 17% of the facility’s production capacity, approximately 3.2% of global LNG supply, helped prices ease. The April contract settled at 156.64p/th, down 23.36p from its high but still up 17.19p on the day, while the summer contract followed a similar trajectory, closing at 152.42p/th, up 18.30p.
Power Market
GB baseload contracts moved higher, tracking the surge in NBP gas prices. The Iranian attack on the Ras Laffan LNG facility drove a 9% increase in the Summer-26 baseload contract, which settled at £110.00/MWh. The baseload day-ahead power contract also surged to £136.00/MWh, marking a day-on-day gain of 20%. The rally was driven not only by the sharp rise in gas prices but also by a decline in wind generation, which fell well below seasonal norms.
The benchmark Dec-26 carbon EUA contract declined €2.54/tonne on Thursday, settling at €63.60/tonne as selling pressure persisted. The contract continued its recent downward trend amid ongoing uncertainty over potential EU ETS‑adjustment proposals, which weighed on market sentiment.
Oil Market
Front-month Brent crude settled higher at $108.65/bbl on Thursday after a volatile session that saw prices briefly spike above $119/bbl, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East were partially offset by emerging signals of potential supply relief. The market reacted sharply to overnight retaliatory Iranian strikes on regional energy infrastructure that targeted key gas and refining assets, which heightened concerns over near-term disruptions to global supply. However, gains were pared as the U.S. administration indicated it may ease constraints on Iranian oil held in floating storage and consider further releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, tempering bullish momentum. As a result, U.S. WTI crude futures ended marginally lower at $96.14/bbl, reflecting persistent volatility and a widening discount to Brent amid regional dislocations.
Markets this morning
Gas prices are trading close to Thursday’s close this morning, with April‑26 last exchanging hands at 156.10p/th as the market assesses the true impact of the Ras Laffan LNG attacks. Damage is estimated to affect 2 of the facility’s 14 trains, equivalent to around 3.2% of global LNG supply, or approximately 1% of total global gas demand. Crude oil is trading flat at $109.27/bbl, despite commitments from six nations to protect tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Carbon has made early gains, with the Dec‑26 contract up €3.17/tonne, as yesterday’s EU meeting neither triggered an immediate supply injection of credits nor clarified any timeline for ETS reforms.
