Gas Market
British wholesale NBP gas prices climbed on Monday, driven by escalating Middle East tensions after Houthis launched attacks on Israel, widening the conflict with Iran and raising supply disruption fears. The front-month April contract finished the session up 1.71p at 137.86p/therm, having gained 59.29p/therm since end-February. The near curve also moved higher amid uncertainty over the conflict’s direction. Mixed messaging from President Trump added to market unease. In the same post, Trump claimed “great progress” on talks to end military operations in Iran while threatening to obliterate Iranian energy infrastructure if no deal is reached. Additional support came from outages at Australian LNG production sites following damage from Cyclone Narelle. The day-ahead contract gained 1.65p to 135.85p/therm, as UK gas for power demand increased 22mcm/d amid lower wind output forecast for Tuesday.
Power Market
GB baseload contracts were mixed on Monday. The front month fell £3.38/MWh to £95.88/MWh after wind output forecasts for the rest of the week were revised up to well above average at 13.3GW. Q2-26 and Summer 26 prices also traded lower, despite bullish moves in the corresponding NBP gas contracts. Remaining far curve contracts found support from upward movements in gas and carbon. The Day ahead contract increased 88.11% on the day to £114.75/MWh amid lower wind forecast for Tuesday.
The Dec-26 EUA contract settled at €72.18/tonne on 30 March, up €0.51, as the market awaits European Commission MSR and benchmark updates due tomorrow. With Easter approaching, two shortened trading weeks and reduced auction supply offer near-term price support.
Oil Market
Oil prices closed higher on Monday, with Brent on course for a record monthly rise. WTI crude settled above $100 a barrel for the first time since July 2022, gaining $3.24 to close at $102.88. Front-month Brent settled up 21 cents, at $112.78, having earlier surged more than $4 to an intraday high of $116.89.The rally was driven by escalating geopolitical tensions after Yemeni Houthis launched their first drone attacks on Israel, widening the broader Iran conflict. Israel’s military said it intercepted two drones on Monday, two days after Iran-aligned Houthis fired missiles at Israel for the first time since the war began. The Houthis have yet to target Red Sea shipping lanes, which handle around 15% of global maritime traffic. U.S. President Donald Trump warned Monday that Iran’s energy infrastructure and oil wells would be destroyed if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had described U.S. peace proposals as “unrealistic” and launched fresh waves of missiles at Israel.
This Morning
European and UK natural gas prices fell in early trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. President Trump told aides he is willing to end the campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The front-month Apr-26 contract is down 4.04p to 133.83p/therm, with Winter-26 down 4.657p at 135.75p/therm. Front-month Brent slipped 23 cents to $112.55/bbl. Analysts cautioned that while prices briefly reacted to the prospect of a ceasefire, any meaningful move lower would require shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to be fully reinstated. Brent crude has been volatile this morning with prices swinging between a 2% rise and 1% fall. The front month Brent last traded down 53c at $112.25/bbl.
