Gas Market
Wholesale UK gas prices saw a modest recovery on Thursday following sharp losses in the previous session, as uncertainty persisted over the durability of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Market attention remained focused on the fragility of the two-week conditional agreement amid conflicting reports about its term, while Israel continued strikes in parts of Lebanon. Despite ongoing concerns over whether Iran will permit ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, shipping data indicated that at least nine vessels had crossed the strait since the ceasefire was announced. However, none of the 15 laden LNG tankers currently inside the strait have yet attempted to transit. Reports that Israel may enter talks with Lebanon tempered some intraday gains before the close, with the front month contract finishing the day at 116.76p per therm, marking a day-on-day gain of 2.51p. Movement across the prompt was more subdued amid mild weather forecasts, with the Day ahead contract rising by 1.50p by the close to settle at 115.00p per therm.
Power Market
UK baseload prompt products displayed some minor gains on Thursday despite high wind output levels forecast for over the coming days. An incline across the near months provided the upside, with the Day ahead contract posting a day-on-day premium of £4.11/MWh by the close. Meanwhile, the front month contract increased by £0.92/MWh to settle at £91.13/MWh, following the increases exhibited by the wholesale gas market, while further out, movement was flat.
European carbon prices rose steadily on Thursday in what was a thinly-traded market. Responses to initial reports that emissions covered by the EU ETS had fallen by circa. 1.5% in 2025 were muted, with Dec 26 European Allowances gaining €1.85 by the close to settle at €73.71 a tonne.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices retraced a small portion of the previous session’s losses on Thursday as concerns grew over the safety of vessels attempting to transit through the Strait of Hormuz as well as the durability of the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Early in the session, continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon, Iranian attacks on regional infrastructure and concerns around ongoing restrictions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz supported prices, with the front month Brent contract reaching an intraday high of $99.40 a barrel. These gains were pared back later in the session however after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had instructed officials to open peace talks with Lebanon, including discussions on disarming Hezbollah. In what was a volatile trading session, the June 26 Brent contract settled at $95.92 a barrel, representing a gain of $1.17 day-on-day.
Markets this morning
UK wholesale gas prices have retraced yesterday’s modest gains so far this morning. The front month contract is down 3.20p on yesterday’s close, last going through at 113.50p per therm. Yesterday’s late reports that Israel was ready to begin direct talks with Lebanon as soon as possible have eased nerves surrounding the fragile ceasefire. In contrast, crude oil markets are showing some upside. Fresh anxiety over supplies from Saudi Arabia and limited tanker traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz are supporting prices, with the front month Brent contract gaining 85 cents on last nights close to last transact at $96.77 a barrel.
