Gas Market
UK wholesale gas prices moved higher on Monday after Donald Trump swiftly rejected Iran’s response to a U.S. peace proposal. With little meaningful progress made over the weekend, the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continued to underpin market volatility, while news of the successful transit of a Qatari LNG vessel through the Strait of Hormuz did little to ease the upside. The front month contract increased by 5.32p day-on-day to settle at 113.43p per therm, while the Winter 26 contract posted a 4.96p gain by the close. Despite well-above average wind power generation forecasts for the rest of the week, strength in the near-dated contracts as well as colder temperatures lent support to the prompt market. The Day ahead contract increased by 5.65p to settle at 115.15p per therm, while the Within day contract jumped by 7.33p by the close to end the session at 117.03p per therm.
Power Market
Gains exhibited by the UK wholesale gas market on Monday supported the GB Baseload curve. As Middle East geopolitical uncertainty continued, the front month contract posted a day-on-day incline of £4.90/MWh to close at £97.25/MWh. Meanwhile, the Winter 26 contract increased by £4.05/MWh by the close to settle at £98.50/MWh. In contrast, prompt contracts edged down on forecasts for strong wind output from today. The Day ahead contract shed 10.7% day-on-day to settle at £92.00/MWh.
European carbon prices were supported on Monday by the U.S. rejection of Iran’s latest peace proposal over the weekend. While the wider energy complex was also in positive territory, 2026 European Allowances increased by €2.24 by the close to settle at €77.29 a tonne.
Oil Market
Increased supply concerns supported crude oil markets on Monday after Donald Trump described Iran’s response to a U.S. peace proposal as “unacceptable” and stated that the ceasefire was “on life support”. While both sides still appear interested in reaching a resolution, prospects for an end to the conflict have become increasingly uncertain. Since the outbreak of hostilities, the global market has effectively lost an estimated 1 billion barrels of oil supply, and even once flows resume through the Strait of Hormuz, the market is expected to require time to rebalance. With limited progress anticipated over the coming days ahead of Trump’s visit to China, supply fears pushed the front month Brent contract up by almost $3 by the close to settle at $104.21 a barrel. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for June delivery gained $2.65 day-on-day to settle at $98.07 a barrel.
Markets this morning
Fading hopes for a swift resolution to the conflict in Iran are lending fresh support to energy markets this morning, as concerns over global supply security continue to build. While reports that a second Qatari LNG vessel has successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz offered some reassurance, fears over tighter LNG availability persist. Increased competition for cargoes from Asian buyers, coupled with an unplanned outage at Norway’s Hammerfest LNG facility, are further intensifying supply concerns. The front month UK wholesale gas price last went through at 116.65p per therm, reflecting a gain of 3.22p on yesterday’s close. Crude oil markets have responded similarly to the ongoing supply risk, with the front month Brent contract most recently assessed at a $3.03 premium to last nights settlement.
