Gas Market
UK wholesale gas prices moved higher across the session, supported by a combination of supply disruptions and geopolitical developments. An unplanned outage at Norway’s Asgard gas field, alongside scheduled maintenance at the Troll field, pushed day-ahead gas prices more than 7.00p/th higher and provided support to the near curve. Early in the session, the front-month Jun-26 contract traded 1.20p/th higher at 125.50p/th despite weaker oil prices after President Trump said overnight that planned U.S. strikes on Iran had again been postponed. However, later comments from Trump setting a weekend deadline for a lasting agreement between Washington and Tehran triggered further strength across near curve contracts. The Jun-26 contract settled 3.35p/th higher on the day, while contracts beyond Winter-26 edged lower.
Power Market
GB baseload power prices tracked gains in UK wholesale gas, with near-curve contracts strengthening as firmer gas fundamentals provided support. The Winter-26 season settled at £103.30/MWh, up £0.90 day on day, extending a five-day gain of £4.90/MWh as expectations for a near-term U.S.-Iran agreement have cooled in recent sessions. Further out along the curve, baseload contracts eased slightly day on day as softer gas signals and declining UKA carbon prices weighed on longer-dated pricing.
Carbon prices moved lower on Tuesday as the recent correlation with weaker oil markets persisted, while additional pressure came from news that the European Commission will bring forward 40 million tonnes of allowances into 2026 auctions from reserve allocations. The Dec-26 contract settled at €75.04/tonne, reflecting the softer tone across the curve.
Oil Market
The front month Brent crude oil contract eased to $111.28/bbl on Tuesday as optimism over renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations reduced fears of an immediate escalation in Middle East tensions. Comments from Vice President JD Vance suggesting both Washington and Tehran were seeking a diplomatic resolution helped pressure prices lower, although the market remained highly sensitive to regional disruption risks. Traders continued monitoring the Strait of Hormuz after conflict-related interruptions curtailed flows through the key export route, sustaining concerns over global supply availability. Additional pressure came from weaker refinery demand in China, where state-owned processors reduced crude runs in response to disrupted supplies and poor margins. Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian oil trade and falling American crude inventories highlighted the fragile balance between tightening supply risks and softer demand signals.
