Gas Market
Wholesale gas prices at the NBP moved lower on Friday as signs of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations eased concerns over prolonged disruption to global energy flows. Officials from both sides indicated that discussions were advancing, with Iranian sources stating that gaps with the U.S. had narrowed, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio referred to “good signs” emerging from the talks. Against this backdrop, the front-month June contract fell by 2.35p/th to settle at 118.47p/th, extending its five-day decline to 5.19p/th. The contract traded as low as 115.18p/th, although losses later moderated as market participants remained cautious after several previous rounds of inconclusive negotiations. Winter-26 posted similar declines, settling at 119.84p/th. Further along the curve, some contracts edged marginally higher in thin trading conditions, with Summer-28 rising by 0.94p/th to settle at 65.14p/th, leaving the contract up 0.34p/th on the week.
Power Market
GB baseload contracts out to Summer-27 declined across the curve as power prices tracked lower gas prices, largely offsetting gains in UK carbon allowances. The September contract saw the sharpest move, falling by £3.90/MWh and pulling the Q3-26 contract down to £99.50/MWh. Further out the curve, firmer gas and rising carbon prices provided some support to longer-dated contracts. Winter-28 edged up by £1.00/MWh to settle at £68.50/MWh.
EUA contracts rose by €2.00/t on Friday, with gains driven primarily by a short-term uptick in demand rather than any shift in the broader outlook. Outages across French nuclear capacity, combined with higher power consumption amid forecast warmer weather, lifted near-term carbon demand as gas-fired generation was increasingly called upon across Europe.
Oil Market
The front month Brent crude oil contract rose to $103.54/bbl on Friday as traders weighed the risk that ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations may fail to restore normal shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping concerns over disrupted Middle Eastern supply firmly in focus. Although diplomatic officials pointed to incremental progress in talks and narrowing gaps between both sides, uncertainty surrounding Iran’s uranium stockpile and control of the strait continued to drive volatile trading. Despite Friday’s gains, Brent and WTI still posted weekly losses as expectations for a potential agreement shifted repeatedly throughout the week. Analysts noted that global inventories are tightening rapidly as reduced flows through Hormuz constrain exports from key Gulf producers, though expectations of an eventual truce and the prospect of higher OPEC+ output have so far limited the scale of the rally.
