Markets This Morning
Wholesale energy prices have continued to rise in early trading this morning, with little indication of a near-term de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. President Trump has claimed that the war will end after November’s midterm elections; however, media reports suggest his advisers have warned that the conflict could continue for the remainder of his term in office. Further concerns have emerged around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with fears that Houthi militants are close to gaining greater control of the key shipping route, potentially placing additional pressure on energy flows from the Middle East. Against this backdrop, the October gas contract was last trading at 202.00p/th, while front month Brent crude remained firmly above $100/bbl at $102.52/bbl.
Yesterday in Summary
UK wholesale gas prices surged on Wednesday as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz heightened concerns over global LNG supply. The Winter-26 contract briefly exceeded 200p/th before retreating, although it still settled at 198.06p/th, its highest level since August 2022. Crude oil also moved above the $100/bbl threshold as continued disruption to Middle Eastern supply intensified, with Brent settling at $101.21/bbl. Gains in gas and carbon subsequently lifted GB baseload power prices, while EUAs extended their recent rally ahead of the 30 September compliance deadline.
