Brent crude oil contract broke a four-session winning streak on Thursday

UK gas prices finished mixed with a system deficit combining with higher demand

UK gas prices finished mixed with a system deficit combining with higher demand providing support for the prompt and near-term contracts.   In addition, talk of some disruption at two Norwegian gas fields added to the overall negative sentiment.  The two fields in question, Orman Lange and Aasta Hansteen, flow to Nyhamna and ultimately feed in the Langeled pipeline to the UK.  Forecast demand on the system remains relatively high at 315MCM, reflecting the dearth of wind generation and higher output from gas generation.  The system was expected to finish short by some 6MCM and this also drove some premium into prompt gas prices.  The spot added 0.15p while day ahead was priced at 40.40p, up by 0.35p from the previous close.

 

EUA carbon costs increased by 47 cents as the spot moved to €28.09 per tonne

After a significant spike on Wednesday, GB baseload day ahead power eased by over £8.00 as the contract settled at £59.75/MWh.  However, the contract remains elevated as the market hangs on to a considerable amount of the previous session gains.  The power system remains less than comfortable as wind generation levels remain low.  A high-pressure system across the region remains in place and conditions for wind are not ideal.  On the power curve prices edged higher once again reflecting the bullish energy complex.  EUA carbon costs increased by 47 cents as the spot moved to €28.09 per tonne and added to the upward pressure on the curve.

The global Brent crude oil contract broke a four-session winning streak on Thursday

The global Brent crude oil contract broke a four-session winning streak on Thursday with the contract settling lower.  This market swung between gains and losses over the course of the session with the bears ultimately winning out as Brent shed 81 cents to close at $47.80 a barrel.  Crude oil prices have been on the up in recent sessions as signs of demand growth and more positive sentiment around a coronavirus vaccine provides support.  The losses for crude come in the context where U.S. markets are closed for Thanksgiving Day so it is not altogether clear that a new direction has been established.    

 The UK NBP gas market had opened stronger this morning

The UK NBP gas market had opened stronger this morning with the colder weather and higher demand providing support.  Latest weather forecasts suggest a continuation of the cold weather into next week and as a result gas prices have moved higher.  The front month December contract has added 1.75p in early trading and is priced at 41.37p per therm.  The component months of Quarter 1 2021 have added between 1.50p and 1.25p.  Forecast gas demand for today has been revised higher to 323MCM with the system project to finish short by some 14MCM.  All crude oil markets have resumed trading following yesterday’s U.S. holiday.  Brent is priced at $48.05, up by 25 cents.