Brent largely ignored the situation in California and finished flat

09 December 2020

At market settlement gas contract finished somewhat mixed

Forecast demand in the UK fell back by 10MCM to 350MCM as wind generation increased and output from conventional gas generation fell back.  Overall gas demand remains elevated, but the system was quite comfortable with line pack expected to grow by 15MCM by the close.  Strong flows of 82MCM from Langeled were the order of the day with the system also receiving strong support from the St Fergus terminal which contributed 76MCM. On the market prices moved between gains and losses over the course of the day with little new direction being established.  At market settlement gas contract finished somewhat mixed although prices did not stray too far from the previous settlement.  

Volatility on carbon markets is expected to continue with the UK exiting the EU ETS on the 1st January

The GB baseload power market finished mixed on Tuesday as conflicting signals were the order of the day.  A softer NBP gas market and some reduction in EUA carbon costs provided some downside for contracts.  Volatility on carbon markets is expected to continue with the UK exiting the EU ETS on the 1st January.  On the curve movement was modest enough with the front month contract shedding £0.30 to close at £53.75/MWh.  Significant volatility remains on the power prompt with the day ahead contract adding £6.85 to close at £77.35/MWh.

Global crude oil markets remain on edge as Covid 19 cases surge across the world

Global crude oil markets remain on edge as Covid 19 cases surge across the world.  In particular, markets are eying the situation in California with some concern as the most populous U.S. state imposes a strict lockdown across the state.  California is the largest market for gasoline consumption across the United States consuming 38.5 million barrels a day.  Clearly the shutdown and the possible loss of significant demand has a global impact and in particular put additional pressure on the West Texas Intermediate contract.  At market settlement WTI was down by 16 cents while Brent largely ignored the situation in California and finished flat to close at $48.82 a barrel.  

The Brent crude contract is trading higher this morning up by 39 cents from last night’s close.

With temperatures increasing and conditions turning more favourable for wind generation, forecast gas demand in the UK has reduced to 340MCM.  The system is in balance this morning with supplies exactly matching demand.  In general, gas flows remain on par with yesterday save for output from LNG which has reduced slightly.  NBP gas contract have ticked up in early trading with between 0.30p and 0.75p added.  The EUA carbon market has recovered the losses from the previous session and the spot is priced at €29.86 per tonne up by 27 cents.  The Brent crude contract is trading higher this morning at $49.24 a barrel, up by 39 cents from last night’s close.