West Texas Intermediate, settled above $50.00 for the first time in 10 months.

07 January 2021

 Slight system deficit during the day saw prompt gas prices increase marginally

As cold weather continued to prevail over Britain and Ireland, demand on the UK gas system increased to 386MCM yesterday. The system slipped into deficit mid-morning and only recovered balance at close of business. Tuesday’s sharp downward correction on the UK gas market was followed by more modest losses on Wednesday. The front month shed another penny and March was down by 0.89p but contracts for the remainder of the year were down by an average of just 0.40p. The slight system deficit during the day saw prompt gas prices increase marginally with gains averaging 0.30p across the board  

Carbon prices rallied with EU ETS unit prices gaining 67 cent

GB baseload power futures eased a little further on Wednesday, but movement was marginal compared to the previous day’s slump. The front month February contract fell by just £0.20/MWh and Summer 21 was down by £0.22/MWh. Carbon prices rallied with EU ETS unit prices gaining 67 cent to finish above €33.50 per tonne. The day ahead baseload power price fell back below £100/MWh as the National Grid lifted the supply margin notice with demand easing due to the new lockdown measures across the UK. Margins are expected to remain tight as wind generation is forecast to fall further today.  

Crude oil continued to strengthen in global trading yesterday

Crude oil continued to strengthen in global trading yesterday as Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to maintain production limits for the month of February. In fact, Saudi has indicated it will cut production by 1 million barrels per day next month as fears of further demand destruction prevail with extended lockdowns in many major oil consuming economies. Brent crude gained 70 cents to settle at $54.30 on the news. U.S. inventory data released by the Energy Information Administration yesterday showed a big draw on crude stocks in the U.S. as refineries ramp up production following the holiday period. The U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, settled above $50.00 for the first time in 10 months.  

Demand on the UK gas system remains elevated

Demand on the UK gas system remains elevated with heating demand up as more people stay at home and gas-fired power demand is up due to lower wind availability. Strong storage withdrawals and LNG send-out are maintaining a positive supply-demand balance this morning but prompt and near futures gas prices are retracing some of the sharp losses of earlier in the week. Within day and day ahead prices are up by 2.50p and 1.95p while the front month is up by 2.55p and the Q2 contract by over a penny. Crude oil continues to edge higher despite, or possibly because of, the turmoil in the U.S. Carbon prices are also up again with all contracts trading above €34.00 per tonne.