On the carbon market, EU ETS unit prices shed just over €1.00/tonne

26 January 2021

 Early gains on the prompt gas market were retraced with falling demand in the afternoon

The cold spell continued over the weekend and into Monday and demand on the UK gas system peaked at 376MCM yesterday morning. The system remained in positive balance throughout the trading day, helped by higher-than-forecast wind generation. Early gains on the prompt gas market were retraced with falling demand in the afternoon and Friday’s strong gains were largely cancelled out with losses averaging 3.60p yesterday. It was a similar story on the futures market as losses were sustained right along the curve.    

The unplanned outage at the Heysham plant was sorted over the weekend

Lower-than-forecast demand and a more comfortable supply margin saw the day ahead baseload price fall back to £70.00/MWh. The unplanned outage at the Heysham plant was sorted over the weekend and wind generation delivered better-than-forecast, averaging 7.5GW on the day. Baseload futures tracked gas prices lower on Monday with the front month shedding £3.15 to settle at £66.65/MWh. On the carbon market, EU ETS unit prices shed just over €1.00/tonne and settled in a range between €33.00 and €33.75 per tonne.    

 Crude oil prices moved towards the $56.00 a barrel mark again on Monday

Crude oil prices moved towards the $56.00 a barrel mark again on Monday. The market is taking a more optimistic view of the longer-term prospects for oil prices. Increases in the number of new Covid-19 cases along with reports of extended lockdowns in many countries continue to depress global demand however and the short-term view is for little change in the current levels. The downturn in aviation seems likely to continue for many months until high levels of vaccination are achieved, and it is considered safe to travel again.  

Trading has been slow to commence on the UK gas market

As temperatures begin to rise, heating demand has fallen slightly but overall demand remains at 363MCM this morning. Gas-fired power generation is supplying 55% of GB power demand as wind generation has fallen to just 3GW. Trading has been slow to commence on the UK gas market with prompt products yet to trade. The front month has opened lower and last traded at 55.80p, or 0.75p down, while the Summer 21 contract is down fractionally. On the oil market, Brent crude is unchanged overnight. Carbon prices have steadied following yesterday’s losses of over €1.00 per tonne.