Concerns of tight supplies are increased as the summer maintenance of Norwegian feeds has commenced

16 April 2021

Prompt prices at the NBP were buoyed by forecasts of below normal temperatures.

Prompt prices at the NBP were buoyed by forecasts for temperatures to fall below normal for the remainder of April yesterday.  While the day ahead product had yielded around 0.50p in early trading on expectations of lower demand on Friday, that contract too surrendered some of the early losses and was the only prompt product to post a loss although minor. Concerns of tight supplies are increased because the summer maintenance of Norwegian feeds has commenced and could curb imports to the UK by up to 60MCM while storage supplies have also been regularly employed during April.  The gains in prompt fed into the near curve with May and June adding over 1.50p on the day, futures past the front winter season closed around a half a penny up.  

Carbon EUAs closed 0.8% up to close just below recent highs

The energy markets continued to firm on Thursday and GB baseload power futures rose along in tandem.  Gains out to the end of the front season averaged £1.00/MWh and were around half of this for contracts further along the curve.  Carbon EUAs closed 0.8% up to close just below recent highs set earlier in the week. Baseload for the day ahead continued to ease off recent highs and shed almost £3.00/MWh yesterday.  Wind generation is forecast to improve a touch from yesterday’s levels of around 1.9GW, but is unlikely to displace any significant gas generation from the power stack over the next few days.  

 Brent has recorded gains on seven out of the last eight sessions

After Wednesdays significant jump in crude oil prices, the market consolidated those gains yesterday with Brent adding a further 36 cents a barrel to settle at $66.94.  The June contract for the global benchmark did trade above $67.00 for a short spell before easing back at the close.  The U.S. benchmark closed in on the recent one month high to settle at $63.46 a barrel, gaining 31 cents on the day.  Brent has recorded gains on seven out of the last eight sessions as crude oil prices rebound amid positive economic data and recent increased demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency and OPEC. The IEA raised their forecast for 2021 global demand by 5.7 million barrels per day to 96.7 million barrels per day.  

 NBP futures have opened stronger again

Crude oil prices have firmed overnight in Asian markets and early trading across Europe as Brent trades 20 cents up at $67.14 a barrel with positive economic data from China and the U.S. maintaining the support.  In the gas markets, prompt trading has been sluggish with wide bid/ offer spreads making deals unattractive.  NBP futures have opened stronger again with near month around 1.50p to 1.70p higher in early exchanges.  GB gas demand is forecast at 257MCM for today and supplies look to be on a par at present. LNG send out is nominated at 82MCM for today while Norwegian imports are down at 71MCM due to continued maintenance works and storage draws are at 26MCM for today.