Crude oil prices rose to fresh six-week highs on Thursday as the market weighed up an accelerated vaccine roll-out across Europe

30 April 2021

Concerns of tighter gas supplies across Europe in the summer continued to push up Europe futures prices

  There were strong gains to NBP prompt and near futures yesterday after latest forecasts show temperatures will remain 2-3°C below the norm into the first week of May.  Wind generation is expected to drop to just 1.0GW today which will add to the days gas demand as gas fired generators will need to cover in the power stack, and this added support to the near prompt.  The spot and day ahead closed 2.45p and 1.90p higher respectively, while the weekend and next week products posted more modest gains.  Concerns of tighter gas supplies across Europe in the summer continued to push up Europe futures prices and also added support to the NBP curve. The May contract expired on the ICE platform yesterday closing with a bullish 2.91p gain.    

GB power prices moved sharply higher yesterday as gas and carbon EUAs continued to firm

The near curve saw gains averaging £1.50/MWh yesterday while baseload contracts past the front winter settled around £0.50/MWh up.  Carbon EUAs continued to trade into new territory and the spot closed at €47.91 per tonne, adding 22 cent on the day. Wind generation actually out turned lower than expected on Thursday at around 3.6GW and is forecast to fall to around 1.0GW on Friday. The baseload contract for the day ahead gained almost £7.00/MWh as a result, settling at £76.50/MWh.      
 

 Crude oil prices rose to fresh six-week highs on Thursday

Crude oil prices rose to fresh six-week highs on Thursday as the market weighed up an accelerated vaccine roll-out across Europe with possible demand destruction in India and Japan.  Moderna Inc. has announced that it is to double vaccine capacity for the next year, while Germany hit a new record in administering over 1.1 million vaccines in one day, giving hope that oil demand in Europe will increase over the summer as travel restrictions are expected to ease.  There are also positive signs in the U.S. with restrictions in many cities to be relaxed in the coming month as the summer driving season gets under way.  Brent closed at $68.56 a barrel gaining $1.29 on the day.          

Crude oil prices have eased in early exchanges

GB gas demand is on a par with yesterdays’ level at 251MCM and supplies are forecast long by 8MCM.  As expected, wind generation had dropped off today and is contributing just 1.1GW to the power stack. Gas prompt prices have opened firmer but only contracts for the weekend and next week are showing trades. In the futures market, June has assumed the front month status on ICE and the contract is around a penny higher as is the front winter product. Crude oil prices have eased in early exchanges and Brent is currently 55 cents a barrel down on last nights close.   Optional CTA