Crude oil continued to gain as the dollar strengthened again on Friday

07 June 2021

 LNG deliveries to UK terminals are expected to improve the UK supply situation

LNG deliveries to UK terminals are expected to improve the UK supply situation as planned maintenance cuts Norwegian deliveries over the coming weeks.  Eight LNG cargoes are due to berth at UK terminals over the coming 10 days.  A healthy supply margin on the UK gas system on Friday saw the within day price fall by over a penny.  An early supply surplus of almost 20MCM diminished as storage injection and interconnector export rates increased.  Gas-fired power demand increased as wind generation levels fell over the course of the day.  but as on Thursday, gas futures prices were little changed and near futures prices remained 1.20p higher on average week-on-week.  

 Near futures were more responsive to the decline in carbon prices

GB baseload power futures recorded mixed movement with losses generally out-weighing gains on Friday as carbon prices slipped lower.  Near futures were more responsive to the decline in carbon prices on the day but seasonal contract beyond Winter 21 remained lower week-on-week. The day ahead price gained £2.00/MWh as wind generation is forecast lower for today and indeed for the rest of this week.  National Grid forecast wind generation levels to average just 2GW through the week.  

 The oil market was encouraged by rebounding U.S. economic growth

Crude oil continued to gain as the dollar strengthened again on Friday.  Brent crude gained 58 cents to settle at $71.89, almost $2.50 higher week-on-week.  West Texas Intermediate gained 81 cents to settle at $69.62 a barrel.  The oil market was encouraged by rebounding U.S. economic growth and improving jobless numbers.  The US added 560,000 jobs in May, which is up on April’s total, but below expectations from economists.  Following Thursday’s slide, carbon prices eased further on Friday with the current year EUA price settling below €50.00 per tonne while UK allowances shed 50 pence to finish in a range between £45.75 and £47.50 per tonne.  

 Contracts for August and beyond are showing only marginal gains

Demand on the UK gas system is running some 30MCM below the seasonal norm despite almost negligible wind generation this morning.  The system is currently forecast 25MCM long and, although prompt contracts have yet to trade, the comfortable supply situation should see some easing of spot and day ahead prices.  The front month is trading 0.89p up on Friday’s close as concerns remain over low storage levels.  Contracts for August and beyond are showing only marginal gains.  Brent crude is down 25 cents while EU carbon prices have eased again in early trading this morning.