Crude oil prices crept higher again on Friday

Modest losses on the UK gas futures market on Friday

Modest losses on the UK gas futures market on Friday, similar to last Monday’s, book-ended strong gains mid-week which saw contracts out to Q2 2022 record gains of around 10% week-on-week.  With restricted Norwegian deliveries on the day and no new LNG deliveries due until July 13, prices initially stepped higher on Friday but the restoration of strong Norwegian supply in the afternoon saw the system close in surplus and futures prices finish lower day-on-day.  Early gains on the prompt market were not as readily surrendered leaving spot and day ahead prices up by 1.50p and the week ahead contract for this week gained 1.40p.

GB baseload futures recorded mixed movement on Friday

GB baseload futures recorded mixed movement on Friday with most contracts easing in line with lower gas and carbon prices on the day.  An increase in imports from France is expected with French nuclear generation stepping up following maintenance and this also helped lower near futures GB power contracts. The day ahead contract shed £4.00/MWh to back off the £100.00/MWh mark which looked threatened last week.  Improved wind availability also pushed the week ahead contract for this week lower.  EUA prices fell by €0.50/tonne while UKA’s shed £0.33/tonne on Friday.

 The OPEC meeting ended without an agreement

Crude oil prices crept higher again on Friday and, although the day-on-day increase in Brent crude was just 33 cents, the week-on-week rise in the global benchmark price was again significant at $2.83 a barrel.  The market saw some price easing in the morning as expectations of an increase in OPEC production quotas was expected.  The OPEC meeting ended without an agreement however as the UAE blocked proposals which would have seen a gradual easing beginning in August.  The U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, did ease fractionally as demand in the U.S. fell short of expectations for June.  

 Carbon prices hit new highs this morning

With wind generation up on Friday’s level and warm weather prevailing, demand on the UK gas system is forecast at just 125MCM for today.  Forecast deliveries are running 25MCM long but storage injection demand, currently at just 2MCM is likely to pick up, although not significantly at current prices.  At least the strong system surplus has taken pressure off the prompt and within day and day ahead prices are down by 2.95p and 2.45p.  Futures contracts continue to add premium however with the front month up by 2.53p to 92.05p as carbon prices hit new highs this morning.  The oil market remains directionless as a decision from OPEC regarding easing of production quotas is awaited.